East Texas A&M at Oregon St
Monday, November 16, 2026, 9:30 PM ET at Gill Coliseum. East Texas A&M our rank 242 · 2-1; Oregon St our rank 91 · 3-0.
Who will win East Texas A&M vs Oregon St?
The model gives Oregon State a 93% chance to beat East Texas A&M, with a projected score of Oregon St 83, East Texas A&M 67.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon St | |||||
| FreitagG · 25 min | 17.1 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 15+ 61% | |
| GoryF · 25 min | 14.0 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 15+ 43% | |
| SmileyG · 26 min | 13.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 15+ 40% | |
| Lake IIG · 28 min | 13.4 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 15+ 39% | |
| East Texas A&M | |||||
| DoddG · 30 min | 15.3 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 15+ 51% | |
| DiakiteF · 31 min | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 15+ 39% | |
| AldridgeF · 25 min | 11.9 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 10+ 61% | |
| DuchampF · 24 min | 7.6 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 5+ 69% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Daniel Freitag: East Texas A&M 10%Oregon St 90%
The white mark is the call with him: Oregon St 93%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Oregon St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon St | ||||
| Daniel Freitag | 1.9 | 90% | −3 | 68–82 |
| DeShawn Gory | 1.9 | 90% | −3 | 68–82 |
| Josiah Lake II | 1.9 | 90% | −3 | 68–82 |
| Chris Johnson | 1.7 | 90% | −3 | 68–82 |
| East Texas A&M | ||||
| Alonzo Dodd | 1.0 | 94% | +1 | 66–84 |
Change is in Oregon St's win chance, in points. Scores read East Texas A&M, then Oregon St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
East Texas A&M 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 76-80vs FDUDidn't cover −11.5 · Over 138.5
- Nov 5W 72-71at RiceCovered +3.5 · Under 145.5
- Nov 2W 68-64at Oklahoma
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 72.0 and allowing 71.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Oregon St 3-0WWW
- Nov 9W 94-84vs E WashingtonDidn't cover −17.5 · Over 162.5
- Nov 6W 96-68vs CA BaptistCovered −20.5 · Over 157.5
- Nov 2W 102-61vs Weber St
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 97.3 and allowing 71.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| East Texas A&M | Oregon St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.0 270th | 112.5 71st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.5 209th | 104.7 111th |
| Possessions a game | 70.3 238th | 70.7 196th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.6% 247th | 51.3% 121st |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.0% 35th | 49.5% 113th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.7% 327th | 16.9% 54th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.3% 5th | 31.6% 191st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 275th | 0.31 23rd |
The widest gap: Oregon St's defense (111th) against East Texas A&M's offense (270th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- East Texas A&M 31, Oregon St 40
- First-half margin
- Oregon St by 8.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.5
- Projected second half
- East Texas A&M 36, Oregon St 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- East Texas A&M, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 36.0 scored, 29.3 allowed
- Oregon St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 45.3 scored, 35.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
East Texas A&M
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed DiakiteF | 31 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Alonzo DoddG | 30 | 15.3 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 4+ ast 45% · 3+ threes 48% | |||||
| Gasper SkorjancG | 28 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Bo AldridgeF | 25 | 11.9 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 56% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Thomas DuchampF | 24 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Maxime CarrioF | 18 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Amar HotF | 18 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
| Jaxson FordF | 17 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
Oregon St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josiah Lake IIG | 28 | 13.4 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 58% · 5+ ast 44% | |||||
| Xavion StatonC | 27 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 7+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Legend SmileyG | 26 | 13.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 2.5 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 49% · 3+ threes 42% | |||||
| Daniel FreitagG | 25 | 17.1 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| DeShawn GoryF | 25 | 14.0 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Chris JohnsonG | 19 | 9.9 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Jemai LakeG | 16 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Dennis EvansC | 13 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 45% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…