Weber St at Utah State
Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at Dee Glen Smith Spectrum. Weber St our rank 286 · 0-3; Utah State our rank 54 · 3-0.
Who will win Weber St vs Utah State?
The model gives Utah State a 99% chance to beat Weber State, with a projected score of Utah State 94, Weber St 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah State | |||||
| FalslevG · 29 min | 18.2 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 20+ 40% | |
| CallaghanG · 27 min | 14.4 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 15+ 45% | |
| HallG · 29 min | 13.9 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 15+ 42% | |
| TosiF · 24 min | 13.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 15+ 42% | |
| Weber St | |||||
| EkweC · 29 min | 9.9 | 5.2 | 0.5 | 10+ 48% | |
| LoweG · 27 min | 9.6 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 10+ 45% | |
| AbittanG · 22 min | 8.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 10+ 37% | |
| WarlickF · 28 min | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 10+ 36% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Mason Falslev: Weber St 3%Utah State 97%
The white mark is the call with him: Utah State 99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Utah State without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah State | ||||
| Mason Falslev | 4.6 | 97% | −2 | 71–92 |
| Dallin Hall | 3.3 | 98% | −1 | 70–93 |
| Will Hornseth | 3.0 | 98% | −1 | 70–93 |
| Karson Templin | 2.3 | 98% | −1 | 70–93 |
Change is in Utah State's win chance, in points. Scores read Weber St, then Utah State. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Weber St | Utah State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.4 211th | 117.4 27th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 114.8 334th | 102.1 87th |
| Possessions a game | 72.1 59th | 71.6 95th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.4% 260th | 53.0% 40th |
| Opponents' shooting | 54.3% 353rd | 49.3% 95th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.6% 36th | 16.3% 17th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.0% 279th | 32.0% 164th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 344th | 0.24 303rd |
The widest gap: Utah State's offense (27th) against Weber St's defense (334th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Weber St 31, Utah State 45
- First-half margin
- Utah State by 14.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 76.6
- Projected second half
- Weber St 38, Utah State 49
- Second-half points, both teams
- 86.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Weber St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 39.0 scored, 41.7 allowed
- Utah State, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 44.7 scored, 28.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Weber St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augustine EkweC | 29 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 56% | |||||
| Dylan WarlickF | 28 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Gavin LoweG | 27 | 9.6 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 59% · 4+ ast 42% | |||||
| Dyllan ThompsonF | 23 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| ArDarius GraysonG | 22 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Mason AbittanG | 22 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Chamberlain BurgessF | 16 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Aaron PowellG | 15 | 6.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 24% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
Utah State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallin HallG | 29 | 13.9 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Mason FalslevG | 29 | 18.2 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.1 |
| 20+ pts 40% · 7+ reb 53% · 5+ ast 43% | |||||
| Solomon CallaghanG | 27 | 14.4 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 2.5 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 47% · 3+ threes 43% | |||||
| Will HornsethF | 25 | 12.2 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 40% | |||||
| Kingston TosiF | 24 | 13.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Karson TemplinF | 18 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Brayden BoeG | 15 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| AJ BatesG | 15 | 7.5 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ ast 59% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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