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Probable Stats / Men's / Friday, November 13

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UC San Diego at Utah State

Friday, November 13, 2026, 10:00 PM ET at Dee Glen Smith Spectrum. UC San Diego our rank 113 · 2-0; Utah State our rank 54 · 3-0.

Who will win UC San Diego vs Utah State?

Logged before tip-off; never changed after it.

The model gives Utah State a 88% chance to beat UC San Diego, with a projected score of Utah State 85, UC San Diego 71. The spread is Utah State −13.5, with an over/under of 156.5. The model makes it Utah State by 14.0, 0.5 points toward Utah State, and projects 156 total points.

To winUtah State 88%UC San Diego 12%
Projected score71–85UC San Diego, then Utah State
Margin14.0Utah State · line: Utah State 13.5
Total156.4line: 156.5
First half33–41Utah State ahead 77%
UC San Diego by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20by 30Utah State by 40Model: Utah State by 14.0Line: Utah State by 13.5UC San Diego by 20Evenby 20Utah State by 40Model: Utah State by 14.0Line: Utah State by 13.5

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Utah State
FalslevG · 30 min17.46.84.015+ 63%
CallaghanG · 28 min13.72.61.115+ 41%
HallG · 31 min13.34.45.815+ 39%
TosiF · 25 min13.14.81.515+ 37%
UC San Diego
BarnoG · 29 min12.23.03.410+ 63%
BeathF · 31 min12.04.61.410+ 62%
EaglestaffG · 26 min11.54.71.610+ 58%
DotsonG · 20 min8.42.51.410+ 36%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit him

Without Mason Falslev: UC San Diego 21%Utah State 79%

The white mark is the call with him: Utah State 88%.

PlayerPoints a game he addsUtah State without himChangeProjected score
Utah State
Mason Falslev4.679%−974–83
Dallin Hall3.382%−673–84
Will Hornseth3.082%−673–84
Karson Templin2.384%−472–84
UC San Diego
Treysen Eaglestaff2.192%+470–86
Leo Beath1.891%+370–86
Tom Beattie1.190%+271–86
Rahmir Barno0.890%+271–86

Change is in Utah State's win chance, in points. Scores read UC San Diego, then Utah State. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Model against the line

DraftKings · as of 2:23 AM ET
SpreadOver/under
LineUtah State −13.5156.5
ModelUtah State −14156.4
Gap0.5 toward Utah State0.1 lower

A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    UC San Diego 2-0WW

    1. Nov 7W 81-65vs Fresno StCovered −10.5 · Under 151.5
    2. Nov 2W 100-75vs Whittier
    Last 2
    2–0, scoring 90.5 and allowing 70.0
    Against the spread, this season
    1–0
    Totals, this season
    0 over, 1 under

    Utah State 3-0WWW

    1. Nov 10W 118-86vs Utah TechCovered −25.5 · Over 156.5
    2. Nov 7W 90-56vs OmahaCovered −29.5 · Under 154.5
    3. Nov 2W 94-58vs Idaho St
    Last 3
    3–0, scoring 100.7 and allowing 66.7
    Against the spread, this season
    2–0
    Totals, this season
    1 over, 1 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 365
    UC San DiegoUtah State
    Points scored per 100 possessions107.1 123rd117.4 27th
    Points allowed per 100104.8 113th102.1 87th
    Possessions a game70.8 184th71.6 95th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)50.9% 153rd53.0% 40th
    Opponents' shooting50.1% 155th49.3% 95th
    Turnovers, share of possessions17.6% 121st16.3% 17th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses31.0% 231st32.0% 164th
    Free throws per shot0.23 325th0.24 303rd

    The widest gap: Utah State's offense (27th) against UC San Diego's defense (113th), of 365 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    UC San Diego 33, Utah State 41
    First-half margin
    Utah State by 7.7
    First-half points, both teams
    73.4
    Projected second half
    UC San Diego 38, Utah State 45
    Second-half points, both teams
    83.0
    Tied at the half
    4%
    UC San Diego, first halves so far
    Led 0 of 2 · 36.0 scored, 40.0 allowed
    Utah State, first halves so far
    Led 3 of 3 · 44.7 scored, 28.3 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    UC San Diego

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Leo BeathF3112.04.61.41.0
    10+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 59%
    Rahmir BarnoG2912.23.03.40.3
    10+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 54% · 4+ ast 43%
    Treysen EaglestaffG2611.54.71.61.6
    10+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 46%
    Alex ChaikinG227.12.00.81.8
    5+ pts 66% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 49%
    Kayde DotsonG208.42.51.41.6
    10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 45%
    Jake HolmesF185.73.20.70.6
    5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 44%
    Tom BeattieG176.42.51.40.7
    5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 50%
    Dimitrije VukicevicC174.84.00.70.1
    5+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 18%

    Utah State

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Dallin HallG3113.34.45.81.8
    15+ pts 39% · 6+ ast 50% · 2+ threes 48%
    Mason FalslevG3017.46.84.01.1
    15+ pts 63% · 7+ reb 50% · 4+ ast 54%
    Solomon CallaghanG2813.72.61.12.4
    15+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 45% · 3+ threes 41%
    Will HornsethF2611.64.82.10.1
    10+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 59%
    Kingston TosiF2513.14.81.50.6
    15+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 44%
    Karson TemplinF187.64.01.00.6
    5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 45%
    Brayden BoeG144.22.61.40.6
    5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 45%
    AJ BatesG146.71.12.70.5
    5+ pts 62% · 3+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 39%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Fri, Nov 13

    All games
    1. 7 PMprojected 76-83Georgia at North Carolina, men's: game page
    2. 8 PMprojected 79-75Virginia at Maryland, men's: game page
    3. 9 PMprojected 81-76Xavier vs Mississippi St, men's: game page
    4. 9 PMprojected 68-74DePaul at Northwestern, men's: game page
    5. 9 PMprojected 76-81Arizona at Auburn, men's: game page
    6. 9 PMprojected 78-76Stanford at UNLV, men's: game page
    UC San Diego next: vs Texas Southern, Mon, Nov 16 · 96%Utah State next: vs Weber St, Wed, Nov 18 · 99%UC San Diego: schedule and oddsUtah State: schedule and odds