Tarleton St at Weber St
Tuesday, November 24, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Dee Events Center. Tarleton St our rank 252 · 2-1; Weber St our rank 286 · 0-3.
Who will win Tarleton St vs Weber St?
The model gives Weber State a 56% chance to beat Tarleton State, with a projected score of Weber St 79, Tarleton St 77.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weber St | |||||
| EkweC · 31 min | 12.1 | 6.4 | 0.7 | 10+ 63% | |
| LoweG · 29 min | 11.6 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 10+ 59% | |
| WarlickF · 30 min | 10.1 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 10+ 49% | |
| GraysonG · 23 min | 9.9 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 10+ 47% | |
| Tarleton St | |||||
| Kelly IVG · 33 min | 12.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 10+ 65% | |
| CopeG · 29 min | 10.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 10+ 55% | |
| EmmouG · 27 min | 9.7 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 10+ 46% | |
| ManiF · 18 min | 8.6 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 10+ 38% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Tarleton St 2-1WLW
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 84.0 and allowing 71.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Tarleton St | Weber St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.0 269th | 102.4 211th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.2 235th | 114.8 334th |
| Possessions a game | 71.5 103rd | 72.1 59th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.6% 58th | 49.4% 260th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.3% 97th | 54.3% 353rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.6% 244th | 16.6% 36th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 134th | 30.0% 279th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.30 32nd | 0.22 344th |
The widest gap: Tarleton St's offense (269th) against Weber St's defense (334th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Tarleton St 36, Weber St 37
- First-half margin
- Weber St by 1.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.3
- Projected second half
- Tarleton St 41, Weber St 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Tarleton St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.7 scored, 29.3 allowed
- Weber St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 39.0 scored, 41.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Tarleton St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leroy Kelly IVG | 33 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 7+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| TJ CopeG | 29 | 10.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Franck EmmouG | 27 | 9.7 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Adrian ShackletonG | 23 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Kade DouglasG | 21 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Trey HarrisG | 19 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Jac ManiF | 18 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 50% to play · 10+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Brett FreemanG | 18 | 8.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
Missed the last game: Jac Mani (20 min a game).
Weber St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augustine EkweC | 31 | 12.1 | 6.4 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 7+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Dylan WarlickF | 30 | 10.1 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Gavin LoweG | 29 | 11.6 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 53% · 5+ ast 46% | |||||
| Dyllan ThompsonF | 24 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| ArDarius GraysonG | 23 | 9.9 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ ast 46% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Mason AbittanG | 22 | 9.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Chamberlain BurgessF | 16 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Aaron PowellG | 14 | 6.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 2+ reb 25% · 2+ threes 34% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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