Who will win Oklahoma vs Pitt?
The model gives Oklahoma a 55% chance to beat Pittsburgh, with a projected score of Oklahoma 75, Pitt 73.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Oklahoma | |||||
| BrownG · 32 min | 12.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 10+ 65% | |
| ReidF · 32 min | 12.3 | 5.5 | 0.7 | 10+ 64% | |
| EdwardsG · 27 min | 10.5 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 10+ 52% | |
| IsaacsG · 28 min | 10.4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 10+ 51% | |
 Pitt | |||||
| SumlerG · 35 min | 16.2 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 15+ 56% | |
| NdongoF · 29 min | 14.6 | 9.8 | 2.1 | 15+ 46% | |
| FosterF · 27 min | 12.8 | 5.8 | 0.8 | 15+ 35% | |
| PowellG · 36 min | 10.8 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 10+ 54% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Xzayvier Brown: Oklahoma 45%Pitt 55%
The white mark is the call with him: Oklahoma 55%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Oklahoma without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | ||||
| Xzayvier Brown | 2.7 | 45% | −10 | 73–75 |
| B.J. Edwards | 2.7 | 45% | −10 | 73–75 |
| Derrion Reid | 2.3 | 47% | −8 | 73–74 |
| Duke Brennan | 2.2 | 47% | −8 | 73–74 |
| Pitt | ||||
| Jonathan Powell | 2.5 | 65% | +10 | 76–72 |
| Baye Ndongo | 2.4 | 65% | +10 | 76–72 |
| Naithan George | 2.1 | 64% | +9 | 76–72 |
| A'lahn Sumler | 2.1 | 64% | +9 | 76–72 |
Change is in Oklahoma's win chance, in points. Scores read Oklahoma, then Pitt. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Oklahoma 2-1LWW
- Nov 9W 81-72vs North AlabamaDidn't cover −28.5 · Over 147.5
- Nov 6W 84-57vs Miss Valley StDidn't cover −40.5 · Under 152.5
- Nov 2L 64-68vs East Texas A&M
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 76.3 and allowing 65.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Oklahoma | Pitt | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 114.2 59th | 109.9 90th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 102.4 90th | 100.1 58th |
| Possessions a game | 70.1 261st | 69.9 276th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.8% 231st | 49.8% 231st |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.5% 254th | 49.2% 88th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.0% 178th | 17.0% 68th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.7% 123rd | 33.0% 108th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 264th | 0.30 31st |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Oklahoma 35, Pitt 34
- First-half margin
- Oklahoma by 0.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.3
- Projected second half
- Oklahoma 40, Pitt 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Oklahoma, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 33.3 scored, 30.7 allowed
- Pitt, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 41.3 scored, 36.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Oklahoma
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrion ReidF | 32 | 12.3 | 5.5 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 6+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Xzayvier BrownG | 32 | 12.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 55% · 4+ ast 43% | |||||
| Pop IsaacsG | 28 | 10.4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 58% | |||||
| B.J. EdwardsG | 27 | 10.5 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Khani RoothsF | 25 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Duke BrennanF | 21 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Dayton ForsytheG | 19 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ ast 51% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
Pitt
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan PowellG | 36 | 10.8 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 2.5 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 52% · 3+ threes 43% | |||||
| A'lahn SumlerG | 35 | 16.2 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 46% · 4+ ast 50% | |||||
| Baye NdongoF | 29 | 14.6 | 9.8 | 2.1 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 10+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Chase FosterF | 27 | 12.8 | 5.8 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 6+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Naithan GeorgeG | 27 | 9.6 | 2.0 | 4.7 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 53% · 5+ ast 49% | |||||
| Jalil BetheaG | 18 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Akir SouareF | 16 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 4+ reb 46% | |||||
| Armani MightyC | 11 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 55% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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