Who will win Baylor vs Alabama?
The model gives Baylor a 52% chance to beat Alabama, with a projected score of Baylor 82, Alabama 82.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Baylor | |||||
| Decker Jr.G · 26 min | 13.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 15+ 42% | |
| MingoG · 26 min | 13.7 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 15+ 41% | |
| Williams IVG · 26 min | 12.5 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 10+ 65% | |
| MingoG · 23 min | 11.9 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 10+ 61% | |
 Alabama | |||||
| HollowayG · 24 min | 12.5 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 10+ 65% | |
| FielderF · 20 min | 12.1 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 10+ 62% | |
| AllenG · 25 min | 11.3 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 10+ 57% | |
| JemisonF · 20 min | 9.9 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 10+ 47% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Isaac Celiscar: Baylor 39%Alabama 61%
The white mark is the call with him: Baylor 52%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Baylor without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor | ||||
| Isaac Celiscar | 3.4 | 39% | −13 | 80–83 |
| Isaac Williams IV | 3.1 | 40% | −12 | 81–83 |
| Kayden Mingo | 3.0 | 40% | −12 | 81–83 |
| Brett Decker Jr. | 2.6 | 41% | −11 | 81–83 |
| Alabama | ||||
| Aden Holloway | 4.3 | 68% | +16 | 84–79 |
| Amari Allen | 4.0 | 67% | +15 | 84–80 |
| Drew Fielder | 3.4 | 65% | +13 | 84–80 |
| London Jemison | 2.9 | 63% | +11 | 84–80 |
Change is in Baylor's win chance, in points. Scores read Baylor, then Alabama. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Baylor 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 90-61vs YaleCovered −19.5 · Under 158.5
- Nov 6W 109-53vs AR-Pine BluffCovered −38.5 · Under 163.5
- Nov 2W 87-65vs N'Western St
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 95.3 and allowing 59.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
Alabama 3-0WWW
- Nov 9W 109-68vs OaklandCovered −32.5 · Over 170.5
- Nov 6W 101-86vs Arkansas StDidn't cover −24.5 · Over 177.5
- Nov 3W 96-74vs Sam Houston
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 102.0 and allowing 76.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Baylor | Alabama | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 117.6 25th | 119.3 18th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.9 25th | 97.3 32nd |
| Possessions a game | 72.1 59th | 74.1 4th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.0% 145th | 52.6% 59th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.9% 138th | 51.1% 228th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.8% 155th | 17.8% 155th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.4% 39th | 32.5% 140th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 92nd | 0.25 229th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Baylor 39, Alabama 38
- First-half margin
- Baylor by 0.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 76.8
- Projected second half
- Baylor 44, Alabama 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 86.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Baylor, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 49.7 scored, 25.0 allowed
- Alabama, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 49.0 scored, 30.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Baylor
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayden MingoG | 26 | 13.7 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Isaac Williams IVG | 26 | 12.5 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 2+ reb 57% · 4+ ast 50% | |||||
| Brett Decker Jr.G | 26 | 13.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 3.1 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 39% · 3+ threes 54% | |||||
| Isaac CeliscarF | 23 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Dylan MingoG | 23 | 11.9 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Elijah WilliamsF | 19 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Evan ChatmanF | 18 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Caden PowellC | 18 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
Alabama
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari AllenG | 25 | 11.3 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 6+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 52% | |||||
| Aden HollowayG | 24 | 12.5 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 2+ reb 58% · 3+ ast 46% | |||||
| Brandon GarrisonF | 21 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Drew FielderF | 20 | 12.1 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| London JemisonF | 20 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 40% | |||||
| Qayden SamuelsG | 19 | 8.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Keitenn BristowF | 17 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
| Tarris BouieF | 17 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
Missed the last game: Jamarion Davis-Fleming (18 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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