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Probable Stats / Men's / Friday, November 13

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Seton Hall at Alabama

Friday, November 13, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at Coleman Coliseum. Seton Hall our rank 95 · 3-0; Alabama AP 18, our rank 23 · 3-0.

Who will win Seton Hall vs Alabama?

Logged before tip-off; never changed after it.

The model gives Alabama a 92% chance to beat Seton Hall, with a projected score of Alabama 82, Seton Hall 67. The spread is Alabama −17.5, with an over/under of 156.5. The model makes it Alabama by 15.6, 1.9 points toward Seton Hall, and projects 149 total points.

To winAlabama 92%Seton Hall 8%
Projected score67–82Seton Hall, then Alabama
Margin15.6Alabama · line: Alabama 17.5
Total149.1line: 156.5
First half31–39Alabama ahead 79%
Seton Hall by 10Evenby 10by 20by 30by 40Alabama by 50Model: Alabama by 15.6Line: Alabama by 17.5Seton Hall by 10by 10by 30Alabama by 50Model: Alabama by 15.6Line: Alabama by 17.5

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Alabama
HollowayG · 23 min12.32.22.710+ 64%
FielderF · 20 min12.24.71.510+ 63%
AllenG · 24 min11.15.54.110+ 56%
JemisonF · 20 min10.03.50.910+ 48%
Seton Hall
AndersonG · 26 min13.22.71.515+ 38%
FisherG · 28 min7.94.21.410+ 32%
Copeland Jr.F · 18 min6.83.50.65+ 63%
WilliamsF · 20 min6.43.81.15+ 60%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit him

Without Aden Holloway: Seton Hall 15%Alabama 85%

The white mark is the call with him: Alabama 92%.

PlayerPoints a game he addsAlabama without himChangeProjected score
Alabama
Aden Holloway4.385%−769–80
Amari Allen4.085%−769–80
Drew Fielder3.486%−668–81
London Jemison2.987%−568–81
Seton Hall
Elijah Fisher1.994%+266–83
Roddie Anderson1.894%+266–83
Devin Williams1.594%+266–83
Simeon Wilcher1.594%+266–83

Change is in Alabama's win chance, in points. Scores read Seton Hall, then Alabama. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Model against the line

DraftKings · as of 2:23 AM ET
SpreadOver/under
LineAlabama −17.5156.5
ModelAlabama −15.6149.1
Gap1.9 toward Seton Hall7.4 lower

A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Seton Hall 3-0WWW

    1. Nov 9W 68-62vs CharlotteCovered −4.5 · Under 130.5
    2. Nov 5W 67-60vs Long IslandDidn't cover −17.5 · Under 135.5
    3. Nov 2W 66-42vs Saint Peter's
    Last 3
    3–0, scoring 67.0 and allowing 54.7
    Against the spread, this season
    1–1
    Totals, this season
    0 over, 2 under

    Alabama 3-0WWW

    1. Nov 9W 109-68vs OaklandCovered −32.5 · Over 170.5
    2. Nov 6W 101-86vs Arkansas StDidn't cover −24.5 · Over 177.5
    3. Nov 3W 96-74vs Sam Houston
    Last 3
    3–0, scoring 102.0 and allowing 76.0
    Against the spread, this season
    1–1
    Totals, this season
    2 over, 0 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 365
    Seton HallAlabama
    Points scored per 100 possessions103.8 186th119.3 18th
    Points allowed per 10097.1 30th97.3 32nd
    Possessions a game69.5 307th74.1 4th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)49.2% 279th52.6% 59th
    Opponents' shooting49.3% 95th51.1% 228th
    Turnovers, share of possessions18.9% 276th17.8% 155th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses30.8% 251st32.5% 140th
    Free throws per shot0.28 81st0.25 229th

    The widest gap: Alabama's defense (32nd) against Seton Hall's offense (186th), of 365 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Seton Hall 31, Alabama 39
    First-half margin
    Alabama by 8.6
    First-half points, both teams
    70.0
    Projected second half
    Seton Hall 36, Alabama 43
    Second-half points, both teams
    79.1
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Seton Hall, first halves so far
    Led 3 of 3 · 34.0 scored, 26.0 allowed
    Alabama, first halves so far
    Led 3 of 3 · 49.0 scored, 30.7 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Seton Hall

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Elijah FisherG287.94.21.40.4
    10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 39%
    Simeon WilcherG275.63.01.41.1
    5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 61%
    Roddie AndersonG2613.22.71.51.7
    15+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 47%
    Devin WilliamsF206.43.81.10.4
    5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 33%
    Terry Copeland Jr.F186.83.50.60.2
    5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 15%
    Mihailo PetrovicG174.31.71.80.4
    5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 50%
    Del JonesG164.71.61.50.5
    5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 42%
    Trey ParkerG163.62.21.20.5
    5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 36%

    Alabama

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Amari AllenG2411.15.54.11.5
    10+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 56%
    Aden HollowayG2312.32.22.72.2
    10+ pts 64% · 2+ reb 58% · 3+ ast 49%
    Brandon GarrisonF208.04.81.00.3
    10+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 27%
    Drew FielderF2012.24.71.51.5
    10+ pts 63% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 43%
    London JemisonF2010.03.50.91.5
    10+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 40%
    Qayden SamuelsG198.42.22.01.5
    10+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 55%
    Keitenn BristowF175.34.30.60.3
    5+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 25%
    Tarris BouieF178.03.31.11.2
    10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 65%

    Missed the last game: Jamarion Davis-Fleming (18 min a game).

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Fri, Nov 13

    All games
    1. 7 PMprojected 76-83Georgia at North Carolina, men's: game page
    2. 8 PMprojected 79-75Virginia at Maryland, men's: game page
    3. 9 PMprojected 81-76Xavier vs Mississippi St, men's: game page
    4. 9 PMprojected 68-74DePaul at Northwestern, men's: game page
    5. 9 PMprojected 76-81Arizona at Auburn, men's: game page
    6. 9 PMprojected 78-76Stanford at UNLV, men's: game page
    Seton Hall next: vs Wisconsin, Thu, Nov 19 · 24%Alabama next: vs Kennesaw St, Tue, Nov 17 · 99%Seton Hall: schedule and oddsAlabama: schedule and odds