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Probable Stats / Men's / Tuesday, November 17

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Kennesaw St at Alabama

Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at Coleman Coliseum. Kennesaw St our rank 158 · 4-0; Alabama AP 18, our rank 23 · 3-0.

Who will win Kennesaw St vs Alabama?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Alabama a 99% chance to beat Kennesaw State, with a projected score of Alabama 94, Kennesaw St 68.

To winAlabama 99%Kennesaw St 1%
Projected score68–94Kennesaw St, then Alabama
Margin25.4Alabama · no line posted
Total162.1no line posted
First half31–45Alabama ahead 90%
Evenby 10by 20by 30by 40by 50Alabama by 60Model: Alabama by 25.4Evenby 20by 40Alabama by 60Model: Alabama by 25.4

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Alabama
HollowayG · 23 min13.52.33.115+ 39%
FielderF · 20 min13.55.11.815+ 39%
AllenG · 23 min12.15.84.610+ 62%
JemisonF · 19 min11.03.81.010+ 56%
Kennesaw St
TaylorF · 21 min8.85.00.710+ 39%
TheophileF · 20 min8.03.60.710+ 33%
Ball · 18 min7.22.40.65+ 67%
Thomas IIF · 20 min7.15.40.95+ 65%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit him

Without Aden Holloway: Kennesaw St 3%Alabama 97%

The white mark is the call with him: Alabama 99%.

PlayerPoints a game he addsAlabama without himChangeProjected score
Alabama
Aden Holloway4.397%−270–92
Amari Allen4.097%−270–92
Drew Fielder3.497%−270–92
London Jemison2.998%−170–92
Kennesaw St
Amir Taylor0.899%068–94
Trey Simpson0.799%068–94
Kris Parker0.699%068–94

Change is in Alabama's win chance, in points. Scores read Kennesaw St, then Alabama. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Kennesaw St 4-0WWWW

    1. Nov 12W 107-54vs LaGrange
    2. Nov 10W 88-79vs WinthropDidn't cover −10.5 · Under 170.5
    3. Nov 6W 71-69vs Austin PeayDidn't cover −5.5 · Under 161.5
    4. Nov 2W 116-57vs Midway
    Last 4
    4–0, scoring 95.5 and allowing 64.8
    Against the spread, this season
    0–2
    Totals, this season
    0 over, 2 under

    Alabama 3-0WWW

    1. Nov 9W 109-68vs OaklandCovered −32.5 · Over 170.5
    2. Nov 6W 101-86vs Arkansas StDidn't cover −24.5 · Over 177.5
    3. Nov 3W 96-74vs Sam Houston
    Last 3
    3–0, scoring 102.0 and allowing 76.0
    Against the spread, this season
    1–1
    Totals, this season
    2 over, 0 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 365
    Kennesaw StAlabama
    Points scored per 100 possessions102.5 208th119.3 18th
    Points allowed per 100105.6 124th97.3 32nd
    Possessions a game73.1 18th74.1 4th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)48.6% 312th52.6% 59th
    Opponents' shooting49.4% 105th51.1% 228th
    Turnovers, share of possessions19.1% 293rd17.8% 155th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses31.3% 213th32.5% 140th
    Free throws per shot0.26 176th0.25 229th

    The widest gap: Alabama's defense (32nd) against Kennesaw St's offense (208th), of 365 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Kennesaw St 31, Alabama 45
    First-half margin
    Alabama by 13.9
    First-half points, both teams
    76.0
    Projected second half
    Kennesaw St 37, Alabama 49
    Second-half points, both teams
    86.0
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Kennesaw St, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 4 · 43.0 scored, 29.5 allowed
    Alabama, first halves so far
    Led 3 of 3 · 49.0 scored, 30.7 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Kennesaw St

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Jacoby HillG216.32.41.60.7
    5+ pts 58% · 2+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 46%
    Amir TaylorF218.85.00.70.4
    10+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 31%
    Avery Thomas IIF207.15.40.91.3
    50% to play · 5+ pts 65% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 35%
    Zyree BrownG206.02.42.01.3
    5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 56%
    Kyler TheophileF208.03.60.71.0
    10+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 58%
    Kris ParkerG194.62.31.00.6
    5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 42%
    Antwane DanielsG195.52.71.40.8
    5+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 51%
    Levi BallNA187.22.40.61.1
    5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 61%

    Missed the last game: Avery Thomas II (24 min a game).

    Alabama

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Amari AllenG2312.15.84.61.6
    10+ pts 62% · 6+ reb 50% · 5+ ast 48%
    Aden HollowayG2313.52.33.12.4
    15+ pts 39% · 3+ ast 57% · 3+ threes 40%
    Brandon GarrisonF208.85.21.20.3
    10+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 32%
    Drew FielderF2013.55.11.81.7
    15+ pts 39% · 2+ ast 50% · 2+ threes 46%
    London JemisonF1911.03.81.01.6
    10+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 44%
    Qayden SamuelsG199.32.42.31.6
    10+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ threes 45%
    Keitenn BristowF175.94.70.70.3
    5+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 28%
    Tarris BouieF179.03.61.21.3
    10+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 37%

    Missed the last game: Jamarion Davis-Fleming (18 min a game).

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Tue, Nov 17

    All games
    1. 7 PMprojected 74-82Illinois at Duke, men's: game page
    2. 7 PMprojected 74-72Villanova at Pitt, men's: game page
    3. 7 PMprojected 81-81Mississippi St at UCF, men's: game page
    4. 7:30 PMprojected 79-79Arkansas vs Indiana, men's: game page
    5. 9 PMprojected 72-73Michigan St at Tennessee, men's: game page
    6. 11:59 PMprojected 69-75West Virginia vs Auburn, men's: game page
    Kennesaw St next: vs SE Louisiana, Fri, Nov 20 · 83%Alabama next: vs Seton Hall, Fri, Nov 13 · 92%Kennesaw St: schedule and oddsAlabama: schedule and odds