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Probable Stats / Men's / Friday, November 20

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SE Louisiana at Kennesaw St

Friday, November 20, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at VyStar Arena. SE Louisiana our rank 305 · 1-2; Kennesaw St our rank 158 · 4-0.

Who will win SE Louisiana vs Kennesaw St?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Kennesaw State a 83% chance to beat SE Louisiana, with a projected score of Kennesaw St 80, SE Louisiana 69.

To winKennesaw St 83%SE Louisiana 17%
Projected score69–80SE Louisiana, then Kennesaw St
Margin10.9Kennesaw St · no line posted
Total148.9no line posted
First half32–38Kennesaw St ahead 71%
SE Louisiana by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20by 30Kennesaw St by 40Model: Kennesaw St by 10.9SE Louisiana by 20Evenby 20Kennesaw St by 40Model: Kennesaw St by 10.9

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Kennesaw St
TaylorF · 21 min10.15.71.010+ 49%
TheophileF · 20 min9.24.20.910+ 42%
Thomas IIF · 21 min8.46.41.210+ 36%
Ball · 18 min8.22.70.810+ 35%
SE Louisiana
FurmanG · 24 min11.63.21.110+ 60%
RolisonG · 30 min9.63.03.910+ 45%
AllenG · 22 min8.73.21.210+ 39%
Sims IIF · 25 min8.44.21.410+ 36%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit him

Without Amir Taylor: SE Louisiana 19%Kennesaw St 81%

The white mark is the call with him: Kennesaw St 83%.

PlayerPoints a game he addsKennesaw St without himChangeProjected score
Kennesaw St
Amir Taylor0.881%−269–79
Trey Simpson0.782%−169–80
Kris Parker0.682%−169–80
SE Louisiana
Yanis Ndjonga0.885%+269–80
Tyler Rolison0.684%+169–80

Change is in Kennesaw St's win chance, in points. Scores read SE Louisiana, then Kennesaw St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    SE Louisiana 1-2LWL

    1. Nov 10L 51-91at Ole MissDidn't cover +26.5 · Under 146.5
    2. Nov 7W 83-79at Little RockCovered +10.5 · Over 145.5
    3. Nov 4L 59-92at Auburn
    Last 3
    1–2, scoring 64.3 and allowing 87.3
    Against the spread, this season
    1–1
    Totals, this season
    1 over, 1 under

    Kennesaw St 4-0WWWW

    1. Nov 12W 107-54vs LaGrange
    2. Nov 10W 88-79vs WinthropDidn't cover −10.5 · Under 170.5
    3. Nov 6W 71-69vs Austin PeayDidn't cover −5.5 · Under 161.5
    4. Nov 2W 116-57vs Midway
    Last 4
    4–0, scoring 95.5 and allowing 64.8
    Against the spread, this season
    0–2
    Totals, this season
    0 over, 2 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 365
    SE LouisianaKennesaw St
    Points scored per 100 possessions98.3 302nd102.5 208th
    Points allowed per 100112.3 296th105.6 124th
    Possessions a game70.0 266th73.1 18th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)50.4% 192nd48.6% 312th
    Opponents' shooting51.2% 237th49.4% 105th
    Turnovers, share of possessions19.7% 331st19.1% 293rd
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses33.4% 91st31.3% 213th
    Free throws per shot0.26 202nd0.26 176th

    The widest gap: Kennesaw St's defense (124th) against SE Louisiana's offense (302nd), of 365 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    SE Louisiana 32, Kennesaw St 38
    First-half margin
    Kennesaw St by 6.0
    First-half points, both teams
    69.9
    Projected second half
    SE Louisiana 37, Kennesaw St 42
    Second-half points, both teams
    79.0
    Tied at the half
    4%
    SE Louisiana, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 3 · 30.3 scored, 43.3 allowed
    Kennesaw St, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 4 · 43.0 scored, 29.5 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    SE Louisiana

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Tyler RolisonG309.63.03.91.0
    10+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 53% · 4+ ast 52%
    Ashley Sims IIF258.44.21.40.7
    10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 49%
    Jackson FurmanG2411.63.21.11.9
    10+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 52%
    Quincy AllenG228.73.21.21.5
    10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 42%
    Yanis NdjongaF206.04.70.30.5
    5+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 36%
    Garrett ShoemakerF195.03.90.50.5
    5+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 37%
    Logan SuberG174.22.32.00.3
    5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ ast 55%
    Gio SanfordG152.71.60.70.2
    5+ pts 21% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 20%

    Kennesaw St

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Avery Thomas IIF218.46.41.21.5
    50% to play · 10+ pts 36% · 7+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 40%
    Jacoby HillG217.22.72.20.7
    5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 49%
    Zyree BrownG216.92.82.61.4
    5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 47%
    Amir TaylorF2110.15.71.00.4
    10+ pts 49% · 6+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 34%
    Kyler TheophileF209.24.20.91.1
    10+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 61%
    Antwane DanielsG196.33.11.90.9
    5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 53%
    Kris ParkerG195.22.61.30.6
    5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 45%
    Levi BallNA188.22.70.81.2
    10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 64%

    Missed the last game: Avery Thomas II (24 min a game).

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Fri, Nov 20

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    2. 3 PMprojected 73-77Northwestern vs Virginia Tech, men's: game page
    3. 7:30 PMprojected 73-77Iowa at Xavier, men's: game page
    4. 8 PMprojected 82-78Georgia at Georgia Tech, men's: game page
    5. 8 PMprojected 79-78Kentucky vs Indiana, men's: game page
    6. 11 PMprojected 80-80Saint Louis at Saint Mary's, men's: game page
    SE Louisiana next: at Texas A&M, Mon, Nov 16 · <1%Kennesaw St next: at Alabama, Tue, Nov 17 · 1%SE Louisiana: schedule and oddsKennesaw St: schedule and odds