Who will win Miami vs TCU?
The model gives Miami a 62% chance to beat TCU, with a projected score of Miami 76, TCU 73.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Miami | |||||
| HendersonF · 29 min | 12.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 15+ 36% | |
| ReneauF · 23 min | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 15+ 35% | |
| LewisG · 32 min | 10.6 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 10+ 53% | |
| CyrilC · 22 min | 9.7 | 5.4 | 0.6 | 10+ 46% | |
 TCU | |||||
| RobinsonG · 33 min | 16.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 15+ 58% | |
| SykesG · 28 min | 13.1 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 15+ 37% | |
| EdmondsF · 27 min | 12.7 | 7.3 | 1.7 | 15+ 35% | |
| ThomasF · 27 min | 10.8 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 10+ 54% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Acaden Lewis: Miami 49%TCU 51%
The white mark is the call with him: Miami 62%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Miami without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | ||||
| Acaden Lewis | 3.8 | 49% | −13 | 75–75 |
| Malik Reneau | 3.5 | 50% | −12 | 75–75 |
| Somto Cyril | 3.4 | 51% | −11 | 75–75 |
| Shelton Henderson | 3.4 | 51% | −11 | 75–75 |
| TCU | ||||
| Xavier Edmonds | 3.7 | 74% | +12 | 78–71 |
| Micah Robinson | 3.6 | 74% | +12 | 78–71 |
| Brock Harding | 3.1 | 72% | +10 | 78–71 |
| Tanner Toolson | 2.8 | 72% | +10 | 78–72 |
Change is in Miami's win chance, in points. Scores read Miami, then TCU. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Miami | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 115.0 51st | 114.3 58th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.9 17th | 97.7 38th |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 111th | 71.2 133rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.0% 287th | 49.3% 271st |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.5% 47th | 50.9% 212th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.8% 155th | 17.0% 60th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.1% 97th | 34.8% 26th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 285th | 0.32 9th |
The widest gap: Miami's defense (17th) against TCU's offense (58th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Miami 36, TCU 34
- First-half margin
- Miami by 1.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.1
- Projected second half
- Miami 40, TCU 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Miami, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 38.0 scored, 30.7 allowed
- TCU, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 49.0 scored, 32.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Miami
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acaden LewisG | 32 | 10.6 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 59% · 5+ ast 48% | |||||
| Shelton HendersonF | 29 | 12.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Malik ReneauF | 23 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Caleb GaskinsF | 23 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Somto CyrilC | 22 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 6+ reb 44% | |||||
| Dante AllenG | 19 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Nick DornG | 16 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 40% | |||||
| Brent BlandG | 15 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
TCU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock HardingG | 33 | 10.7 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 51% · 6+ ast 51% | |||||
| Micah RobinsonG | 33 | 16.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Tanner ToolsonG | 28 | 9.7 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Gavin SykesG | 28 | 13.1 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 2+ ast 50% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| DJ ThomasF | 27 | 10.8 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Xavier EdmondsF | 27 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 2+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Trent LincolnG | 18 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Ryan HuntF | 13 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 53% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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