Who will win Oregon vs St John's?
The model gives St. John's a 72% chance to beat Oregon, with a projected score of St John's 80, Oregon 73.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 St John's | |||||
| HallF · 26 min | 16.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 15+ 56% | |
| YessoufouG · 24 min | 14.7 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 15+ 47% | |
| JacksonG · 22 min | 13.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 15+ 38% | |
| EllisG · 28 min | 8.4 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 10+ 37% | |
 Oregon | |||||
| Riley IVG · 28 min | 11.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 10+ 59% | |
| PayneG · 25 min | 11.4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 10+ 58% | |
| EwinC · 21 min | 9.3 | 6.9 | 1.8 | 10+ 43% | |
| MeadowF · 21 min | 8.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 10+ 40% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Keyshawn Hall: Oregon 43%St John's 57%
The white mark is the call with him: St John's 72%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | St John's without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St John's | ||||
| Keyshawn Hall | 4.3 | 57% | −15 | 75–78 |
| Tounde Yessoufou | 3.7 | 60% | −12 | 75–78 |
| Ruben Prey | 3.4 | 61% | −11 | 75–78 |
| Ian Jackson | 3.1 | 61% | −11 | 75–78 |
| Oregon | ||||
| Malique Ewin | 2.9 | 80% | +8 | 72–81 |
| Dwayne Aristode | 2.4 | 78% | +6 | 72–81 |
| Taylor Bol Bowen | 2.0 | 77% | +5 | 72–81 |
| Andrew Meadow | 2.0 | 77% | +5 | 72–81 |
Change is in St John's's win chance, in points. Scores read Oregon, then St John's. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Oregon 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 100-66vs Miss Valley StCovered −33.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 6W 98-71vs E WashingtonCovered −16.5 · Over 150.5
- Nov 2W 87-69vs Montana
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 95.0 and allowing 68.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Oregon | St John's | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 117.3 28th | 116.2 34th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 101.0 72nd | 93.1 14th |
| Possessions a game | 70.1 261st | 71.9 73rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 56.2% 2nd | 52.0% 85th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.3% 243rd | 50.9% 215th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.1% 76th | 16.9% 59th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.1% 155th | 32.7% 119th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 357th | 0.26 170th |
The widest gap: St John's's offense (34th) against Oregon's defense (72nd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Oregon 34, St John's 38
- First-half margin
- St John's by 3.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.8
- Projected second half
- Oregon 39, St John's 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Oregon, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 47.7 scored, 32.7 allowed
- St John's, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 49.3 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Oregon
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Riley IVG | 28 | 11.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 23% to play · 10+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Fred PayneG | 25 | 11.4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Malique EwinC | 21 | 9.3 | 6.9 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 7+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Andrew MeadowF | 21 | 8.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Jasper JohnsonG | 20 | 7.3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 2+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Taylor Bol BowenF | 19 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Wei LinG | 19 | 8.9 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ ast 41% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Dwayne AristodeF | 18 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
Missed the last game: Tyrone Riley IV (33 min a game).
St John's
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn EllisG | 28 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Keyshawn HallF | 26 | 16.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Tounde YessoufouG | 24 | 14.7 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 47% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Ruben PreyF | 22 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Ian JacksonG | 22 | 13.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Reed BaileyF | 16 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Zsombor MaronkaF | 15 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Lefteris LiotopoulosG | 15 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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