Who will win Syracuse vs St John's?
The model gives St. John's a 82% chance to beat Syracuse, with a projected score of St John's 81, Syracuse 71.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 St John's | |||||
| HallF · 26 min | 16.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 15+ 57% | |
| YessoufouG · 23 min | 14.8 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 15+ 48% | |
| JacksonG · 22 min | 13.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 15+ 39% | |
| EllisG · 28 min | 8.5 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 10+ 37% | |
 Syracuse | |||||
| DotyG · 29 min | 12.3 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 10+ 64% | |
| AnthonyG · 23 min | 11.8 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 10+ 61% | |
| White Jr.F · 26 min | 10.3 | 5.9 | 0.5 | 10+ 50% | |
| WilsonC · 24 min | 9.4 | 5.6 | 0.4 | 10+ 44% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Keyshawn Hall: Syracuse 30%St John's 70%
The white mark is the call with him: St John's 82%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | St John's without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St John's | ||||
| Keyshawn Hall | 4.3 | 70% | −12 | 73–79 |
| Tounde Yessoufou | 3.7 | 72% | −10 | 73–79 |
| Ruben Prey | 3.4 | 73% | −9 | 73–80 |
| Ian Jackson | 3.1 | 73% | −9 | 73–80 |
| Syracuse | ||||
| Gavin Doty | 3.2 | 88% | +6 | 70–83 |
| Garwey Dual | 2.6 | 87% | +5 | 70–83 |
| Luke Wilson | 2.5 | 87% | +5 | 70–83 |
| Sadiq White Jr. | 2.5 | 87% | +5 | 70–83 |
Change is in St John's's win chance, in points. Scores read Syracuse, then St John's. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
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Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Syracuse | St John's | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 116.2 35th | 116.2 34th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 100.7 68th | 93.1 14th |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 222nd | 71.9 73rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 53.1% 34th | 52.0% 85th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.1% 72nd | 50.9% 215th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.4% 23rd | 16.9% 59th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.4% 206th | 32.7% 119th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 76th | 0.26 170th |
The widest gap: St John's's offense (34th) against Syracuse's defense (68th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Syracuse 33, St John's 39
- First-half margin
- St John's by 5.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.6
- Projected second half
- Syracuse 38, St John's 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Syracuse, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 41.3 scored, 24.7 allowed
- St John's, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 49.3 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Syracuse
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin DotyG | 29 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 6+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Garwey DualG | 26 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Sadiq White Jr.F | 26 | 10.3 | 5.9 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 6+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Luke WilsonC | 24 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 6+ reb 46% | |||||
| Ryan MoeschG | 23 | 7.8 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Kiyan AnthonyG | 23 | 11.8 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Mark MoranoF | 18 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
| Amarri MonroeF | 15 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
St John's
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn EllisG | 28 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Keyshawn HallF | 26 | 16.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Tounde YessoufouG | 23 | 14.8 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Ruben PreyF | 22 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Ian JacksonG | 22 | 13.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Reed BaileyF | 16 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Zsombor MaronkaF | 15 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Lefteris LiotopoulosG | 15 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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