Who will win Siena vs St John's?
The model gives St. John's a 99% chance to beat Siena, with a projected score of St John's 89, Siena 63.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 St John's | |||||
| HallF · 25 min | 16.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 15+ 60% | |
| YessoufouG · 23 min | 15.6 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 15+ 52% | |
| JacksonG · 21 min | 14.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 15+ 45% | |
| EllisG · 27 min | 8.7 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 10+ 39% | |
 Siena | |||||
| IbukunoluwaG · 29 min | 16.6 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 15+ 58% | |
| ProsserG · 33 min | 13.6 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 15+ 41% | |
| EgbiremolenG · 29 min | 11.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 10+ 59% | |
| CoyleG · 27 min | 8.8 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 10+ 39% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Keyshawn Hall: Siena 3%St John's 97%
The white mark is the call with him: St John's 99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | St John's without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St John's | ||||
| Keyshawn Hall | 4.3 | 97% | −2 | 65–87 |
| Tounde Yessoufou | 3.7 | 98% | −1 | 65–87 |
| Ruben Prey | 3.4 | 98% | −1 | 65–87 |
| Ian Jackson | 3.1 | 98% | −1 | 65–88 |
| Siena | ||||
| Tim Ibukunoluwa | 0.9 | 99% | 0 | 63–90 |
| Trent Egbiremolen | 0.9 | 99% | 0 | 63–90 |
| Pace Prosser | 0.8 | 99% | 0 | 63–90 |
| Brendan Coyle | 0.7 | 99% | 0 | 63–89 |
Change is in St John's's win chance, in points. Scores read Siena, then St John's. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Siena | St John's | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.8 166th | 116.2 34th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.3 205th | 93.1 14th |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 121st | 71.9 73rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.0% 141st | 52.0% 85th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.4% 181st | 50.9% 215th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.9% 52nd | 16.9% 59th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.8% 242nd | 32.7% 119th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.30 40th | 0.26 170th |
The widest gap: St John's's offense (34th) against Siena's defense (205th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Siena 29, St John's 43
- First-half margin
- St John's by 14.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.5
- Projected second half
- Siena 35, St John's 46
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Siena, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.0 scored, 37.0 allowed
- St John's, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 49.3 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Siena
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pace ProsserG | 33 | 13.6 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 45% · 5+ ast 43% | |||||
| Trent EgbiremolenG | 29 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Tim IbukunoluwaG | 29 | 16.6 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 58% · 6+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Brendan CoyleG | 27 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Reid DucharmeG | 26 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Tan YildizogluG | 23 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 3+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Parrish Edmond Jr.G | 13 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 33% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
St John's
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn EllisG | 27 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 6+ ast 51% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Keyshawn HallF | 25 | 16.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Tounde YessoufouG | 23 | 15.6 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Ruben PreyF | 22 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Ian JacksonG | 21 | 14.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Reed BaileyF | 16 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| Zsombor MaronkaF | 16 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Lefteris LiotopoulosG | 15 | 6.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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