Who will win Brown vs Siena?
The model gives Siena a 74% chance to beat Brown, with a projected score of Siena 76, Brown 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Siena | |||||
| IbukunoluwaG · 31 min | 20.7 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 20+ 53% | |
| ProsserG · 35 min | 17.4 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 15+ 63% | |
| EgbiremolenG · 31 min | 14.5 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 15+ 46% | |
| CoyleG · 29 min | 10.9 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 10+ 54% | |
 Brown | |||||
| JenkinsG · 30 min | 11.0 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 10+ 56% | |
| LoughlinG · 30 min | 9.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 10+ 46% | |
| DaboF · 27 min | 9.5 | 6.8 | 0.8 | 10+ 45% | |
| LanghamG · 16 min | 7.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 5+ 66% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Tim Ibukunoluwa: Brown 29%Siena 71%
The white mark is the call with him: Siena 74%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Siena without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena | ||||
| Tim Ibukunoluwa | 0.9 | 71% | −3 | 69–76 |
| Trent Egbiremolen | 0.9 | 71% | −3 | 69–76 |
| Pace Prosser | 0.8 | 72% | −2 | 69–76 |
| Brendan Coyle | 0.7 | 72% | −2 | 69–76 |
| Brown | ||||
| N'famara Dabo | 0.5 | 75% | +1 | 69–76 |
Change is in Siena's win chance, in points. Scores read Brown, then Siena. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Brown 1-3LLWL
- Nov 12L 81-86vs CanisiusDidn't cover −12.5 · Over 137.5
- Nov 8W 65-55at LehighCovered +5.5 · Under 139.5
- Nov 6L 67-72vs Boston UDidn't cover −1.5 · Under 145.5
- Nov 2L 55-59vs New Hampshire
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 67.0 and allowing 68.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Brown | Siena | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.0 318th | 104.8 166th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.3 157th | 109.3 205th |
| Possessions a game | 70.1 261st | 71.3 121st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.4% 191st | 51.0% 141st |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.4% 304th | 50.4% 181st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.5% 354th | 16.9% 52nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.7% 254th | 30.8% 242nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 365th | 0.30 40th |
The widest gap: Siena's defense (205th) against Brown's offense (318th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Brown 32, Siena 36
- First-half margin
- Siena by 3.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.1
- Projected second half
- Brown 37, Siena 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Brown, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 30.2 scored, 30.0 allowed
- Siena, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.0 scored, 37.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Brown
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady LoughlinG | 30 | 9.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Jeremiah JenkinsG | 30 | 11.0 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 5+ ast 42% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| N'famara DaboF | 27 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 7+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
| Timmy BollinG | 22 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Jerrell Barron Jr.G | 17 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Isaiah LanghamG | 16 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Rykan WooG | 15 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Adrian UchidiunoG | 14 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 73% to play · 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 34% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
Siena
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pace ProsserG | 35 | 17.4 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 63% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Trent EgbiremolenG | 31 | 14.5 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 6+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Tim IbukunoluwaG | 31 | 20.7 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 20+ pts 53% · 8+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 40% | |||||
| Brendan CoyleG | 29 | 10.9 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 2.4 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 48% · 3+ threes 41% | |||||
| Reid DucharmeG | 28 | 10.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Tan YildizogluG | 24 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Parrish Edmond Jr.G | 12 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 35% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…