Who won Siena vs Bryant?
Final: Bryant 80, Siena 75. Before tip-off the model gave Bryant a 41% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 2.9 points for Siena. Keegan Harvey scored 20 for Bryant; Tim Ibukunoluwa had 20 for Siena.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Tim Ibukunoluwa: Siena 56%Bryant 44%
The white mark is the call with him: Siena 59%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Siena without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Siena | ||||
| Tim Ibukunoluwa | 0.9 | 56% | −3 | 65–63 |
| Trent Egbiremolen | 0.9 | 56% | −3 | 65–63 |
| Pace Prosser | 0.8 | 57% | −2 | 65–63 |
| Brendan Coyle | 0.7 | 57% | −2 | 65–63 |
Change is in Siena's win chance, in points. Scores read Siena, then Bryant. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…
Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Siena | Bryant | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.8 166th | 92.7 358th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.3 205th | 106.8 146th |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 121st | 70.2 245th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.0% 141st | 47.8% 339th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.4% 181st | 50.3% 168th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.9% 52nd | 20.8% 358th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.8% 242nd | 28.9% 326th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.30 40th | 0.23 320th |
The widest gap: Siena's defense (205th) against Bryant's offense (358th), of 365 teams.
First half
Siena led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 2.4 points and the total by 17.9.
- At halftime
- Siena 41, Bryant 37
- Projected halftime score
- Siena 31, Bryant 29
- First-half margin
- Siena by 1.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 60.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Siena
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pace ProsserG | 39 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 1 |
| Trent EgbiremolenG | 38 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Tim IbukunoluwaG | 32 | 20 | 14 | 1 | 2 |
| Reid DucharmeG | 28 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Brendan CoyleG | 20 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Tan YildizogluG | 19 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Parrish Edmond Jr.G | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah HendersonG | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andres AmonG | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bryant
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keegan HarveyF | 37 | 20 | 12 | 2 | 3 |
| Onyx NnaniF | 35 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| Ty TabalesG | 33 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| Duane ThompsonF | 26 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 2 |
| Roi BeharF | 24 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Elijah HayeemsF | 19 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Andre PashaF | 19 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| Connor LyonsF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Elijah CrispinF | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |