Brown at Holy Cross
Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Hart Center Arena. Brown our rank 255 · 1-3; Holy Cross our rank 353 · 0-3.
Who will win Brown vs Holy Cross?
The model gives Brown a 68% chance to beat Holy Cross, with a projected score of Brown 74, Holy Cross 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown | |||||
| JenkinsG · 30 min | 11.8 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 10+ 61% | |
| LoughlinG · 30 min | 10.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 10+ 51% | |
| DaboF · 28 min | 10.2 | 7.3 | 0.9 | 10+ 49% | |
| LanghamG · 16 min | 7.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 5+ 69% | |
| Holy Cross | |||||
| WilsonG · 29 min | 14.0 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 15+ 43% | |
| AlijosiusG · 20 min | 8.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 10+ 33% | |
| HansonG · 24 min | 7.9 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 10+ 33% | |
| HareF · 22 min | 7.2 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 5+ 67% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without N'famara Dabo: Brown 67%Holy Cross 33%
The white mark is the call with him: Brown 68%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Brown without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown | ||||
| N'famara Dabo | 0.5 | 67% | −1 | 74–69 |
Change is in Brown's win chance, in points. Scores read Brown, then Holy Cross. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Brown 1-3LLWL
- Nov 12L 81-86vs CanisiusDidn't cover −12.5 · Over 137.5
- Nov 8W 65-55at LehighCovered +5.5 · Under 139.5
- Nov 6L 67-72vs Boston UDidn't cover −1.5 · Under 145.5
- Nov 2L 55-59vs New Hampshire
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 67.0 and allowing 68.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
Holy Cross 0-3LLL
- Nov 11L 67-80vs FurmanDidn't cover +12.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 6L 66-95at VillanovaCovered +34.5 · Over 151.5
- Nov 3L 59-103at Rhode Island
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 64.0 and allowing 92.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Brown | Holy Cross | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.0 318th | 96.0 325th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.3 157th | 116.7 353rd |
| Possessions a game | 70.1 261st | 70.7 196th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.4% 191st | 48.8% 297th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.4% 304th | 52.8% 324th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.5% 354th | 18.3% 211th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.7% 254th | 28.4% 341st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 365th | 0.25 240th |
The widest gap: Brown's defense (157th) against Holy Cross's offense (325th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Brown 35, Holy Cross 32
- First-half margin
- Brown by 2.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.1
- Projected second half
- Brown 39, Holy Cross 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Brown, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 30.2 scored, 30.0 allowed
- Holy Cross, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 27.7 scored, 48.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Brown
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady LoughlinG | 30 | 10.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Jeremiah JenkinsG | 30 | 11.8 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 5+ ast 52% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| N'famara DaboF | 28 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 8+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
| Timmy BollinG | 22 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 40% | |||||
| Jerrell Barron Jr.G | 17 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Isaiah LanghamG | 16 | 7.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Rykan WooG | 15 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Adrian UchidiunoG | 14 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 73% to play · 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
Holy Cross
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan RichardF | 32 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Tristen WilsonG | 29 | 14.0 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Kole HansonG | 24 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Chuck HareF | 22 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Jaelon GermanyG | 22 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Arius AlijosiusG | 20 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| John St. Germain IIIG | 20 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Jude HaighF | 17 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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