UAlbany at Holy Cross
Sunday, November 15, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Hart Center Arena. UAlbany our rank 326 · 2-2; Holy Cross our rank 353 · 0-3.
Who will win UAlbany vs Holy Cross?
The model gives UAlbany a 53% chance to beat Holy Cross, with a projected score of UAlbany 74, Holy Cross 73.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAlbany | |||||
| EngenG · 37 min | 17.1 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 15+ 61% | |
| JonesG · 33 min | 15.5 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 15+ 52% | |
| GrahamF · 28 min | 10.3 | 6.1 | 1.5 | 10+ 50% | |
| MatuluG · 31 min | 9.8 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 10+ 47% | |
| Holy Cross | |||||
| WilsonG · 29 min | 14.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 15+ 48% | |
| HansonG · 25 min | 8.4 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 10+ 36% | |
| AlijosiusG · 20 min | 8.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 10+ 37% | |
| HareF · 22 min | 7.6 | 5.6 | 0.9 | 10+ 31% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Pedro Santos: UAlbany 52%Holy Cross 48%
The white mark is the call with him: UAlbany 53%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | UAlbany without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAlbany | ||||
| Pedro Santos | 0.5 | 52% | −1 | 74–74 |
Change is in UAlbany's win chance, in points. Scores read UAlbany, then Holy Cross. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
UAlbany 2-2WWLL
- Nov 11L 76-85vs DartmouthDidn't cover −1.5 · Over 139.5
- Nov 8L 60-73vs MerrimackDidn't cover +1.5 · Under 134.5
- Nov 5W 72-68at ManhattanCovered +3.5 · Under 147.5
- Nov 2W 74-67vs Rhode Island College
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 70.5 and allowing 73.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
Holy Cross 0-3LLL
- Nov 11L 67-80vs FurmanDidn't cover +12.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 6L 66-95at VillanovaCovered +34.5 · Over 151.5
- Nov 3L 59-103at Rhode Island
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 64.0 and allowing 92.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UAlbany | Holy Cross | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 98.4 298th | 96.0 325th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 114.5 331st | 116.7 353rd |
| Possessions a game | 69.4 315th | 70.7 196th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.1% 282nd | 48.8% 297th |
| Opponents' shooting | 53.9% 348th | 52.8% 324th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.9% 273rd | 18.3% 211th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.7% 30th | 28.4% 341st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 270th | 0.25 240th |
The widest gap: UAlbany's offense (298th) against Holy Cross's defense (353rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- UAlbany 35, Holy Cross 34
- First-half margin
- UAlbany by 0.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.2
- Projected second half
- UAlbany 39, Holy Cross 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- UAlbany, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 34.0 scored, 33.2 allowed
- Holy Cross, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 27.7 scored, 48.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
UAlbany
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie EngenG | 37 | 17.1 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 51% · 5+ ast 46% | |||||
| Tyler JonesG | 33 | 15.5 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 57% · 4+ ast 41% | |||||
| Zacharie MatuluG | 31 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 7+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| U-Mier GrahamF | 28 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Abdoulaye FallG | 20 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Erwann BussingF | 18 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Papa KountaG | 16 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Pedro SantosG | 15 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 74% to play · 5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
Holy Cross
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan RichardF | 33 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Tristen WilsonG | 29 | 14.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 3+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Kole HansonG | 25 | 8.4 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Chuck HareF | 22 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
| Jaelon GermanyG | 22 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ ast 42% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Arius AlijosiusG | 20 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| John St. Germain IIIG | 20 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Jude HaighF | 17 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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