W Illinois v UAlbany
Friday, November 20, 2026, 3:00 PM ET at Koessler Athletic Center. W Illinois our rank 356 · 1-3; UAlbany our rank 326 · 2-2.
Who will win W Illinois vs UAlbany?
The model gives UAlbany a 65% chance to beat Western Illinois, with a projected score of UAlbany 76, W Illinois 71.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAlbany | |||||
| EngenG · 36 min | 17.1 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 15+ 61% | |
| JonesG · 32 min | 15.6 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 15+ 52% | |
| GrahamF · 28 min | 10.4 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 10+ 51% | |
| MatuluG · 31 min | 9.9 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 10+ 47% | |
| W Illinois | |||||
| TraylorF · 28 min | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 15+ 37% | |
| StephensF · 23 min | 11.4 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 10+ 58% | |
| KvammeG · 30 min | 10.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 10+ 52% | |
| RileyF · 26 min | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 10+ 43% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Pedro Santos: W Illinois 37%UAlbany 63%
The white mark is the call with him: UAlbany 65%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | UAlbany without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAlbany | ||||
| Pedro Santos | 0.5 | 63% | −2 | 72–75 |
Change is in UAlbany's win chance, in points. Scores read W Illinois, then UAlbany. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
W Illinois 1-3LLWL
- Nov 12L 83-91vs BakersfieldCovered +9.5 · Over 147.5
- Nov 9W 90-48vs Simpson (IA)
- Nov 7L 67-74vs Hou ChristianCovered +9.5 · Over 136.5
- Nov 2L 58-80at Valparaiso
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 74.5 and allowing 73.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
UAlbany 2-2WWLL
- Nov 11L 76-85vs DartmouthDidn't cover −1.5 · Over 139.5
- Nov 8L 60-73vs MerrimackDidn't cover +1.5 · Under 134.5
- Nov 5W 72-68at ManhattanCovered +3.5 · Under 147.5
- Nov 2W 74-67vs Rhode Island College
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 70.5 and allowing 73.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| W Illinois | UAlbany | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.7 341st | 98.4 298th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 116.5 352nd | 114.5 331st |
| Possessions a game | 70.8 184th | 69.4 315th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.9% 226th | 49.1% 282nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.3% 301st | 53.9% 348th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.1% 292nd | 18.9% 273rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.4% 310th | 34.7% 30th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 134th | 0.24 270th |
The widest gap: UAlbany's offense (298th) against W Illinois's defense (352nd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- W Illinois 33, UAlbany 36
- First-half margin
- UAlbany by 2.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.9
- Projected second half
- W Illinois 38, UAlbany 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- W Illinois, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 32.0 scored, 32.2 allowed
- UAlbany, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 34.0 scored, 33.2 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
W Illinois
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makai KvammeG | 30 | 10.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| Daivion TraylorF | 28 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Jack RileyF | 26 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Hunter VaughnG | 26 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Danny StephensF | 23 | 11.4 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
| Shay StephensG | 21 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Davee FlowersG | 18 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Matthieu BiembongoF | 14 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 46% | |||||
UAlbany
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie EngenG | 36 | 17.1 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 51% · 5+ ast 47% | |||||
| Tyler JonesG | 32 | 15.6 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 57% · 4+ ast 42% | |||||
| Zacharie MatuluG | 31 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 7+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| U-Mier GrahamF | 28 | 10.4 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 6+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Abdoulaye FallG | 20 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Erwann BussingF | 18 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Papa KountaG | 16 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Pedro SantosG | 15 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 74% to play · 5+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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