W Illinois at Minnesota
Monday, November 16, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at The Barn by Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Minnesota. W Illinois our rank 356 · 1-3; Minnesota our rank 64 · 4-0.
Who will win W Illinois vs Minnesota?
The model gives Minnesota a >99% chance to beat Western Illinois, with a projected score of Minnesota 86, W Illinois 57.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | |||||
| AsumaG · 31 min | 15.2 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 15+ 50% | |
| Crocker-JohnsonF · 25 min | 13.5 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 15+ 40% | |
| DurkinF · 29 min | 10.7 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 10+ 53% | |
| EvansG · 29 min | 10.5 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 10+ 52% | |
| W Illinois | |||||
| TraylorF · 26 min | 10.2 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 10+ 49% | |
| StephensF · 22 min | 9.1 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 10+ 41% | |
| KvammeG · 28 min | 8.1 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 10+ 34% | |
| RileyF · 25 min | 7.3 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 5+ 67% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Isaac Asuma: W Illinois 1%Minnesota 99%
The white mark is the call with him: Minnesota >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Minnesota without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | ||||
| Isaac Asuma | 2.4 | 99% | −1 | 58–85 |
| Jaylen Crocker-Johnson | 2.3 | 99% | −1 | 58–85 |
| Bobby Durkin | 2.1 | 99% | −1 | 58–85 |
| Kyan Evans | 1.9 | 99% | −1 | 58–85 |
Change is in Minnesota's win chance, in points. Scores read W Illinois, then Minnesota. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
W Illinois 1-3LLWL
- Nov 12L 83-91vs BakersfieldCovered +9.5 · Over 147.5
- Nov 9W 90-48vs Simpson (IA)
- Nov 7L 67-74vs Hou ChristianCovered +9.5 · Over 136.5
- Nov 2L 58-80at Valparaiso
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 74.5 and allowing 73.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
Minnesota 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 91-61vs SouthernCovered −26.5 · Over 142.5
- Nov 9W 63-61at CincinnatiCovered +7.5 · Under 144.5
- Nov 6W 76-62vs St ThomasDidn't cover −14.5 · Under 149.5
- Nov 2W 85-50vs North Dakota
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 78.8 and allowing 58.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| W Illinois | Minnesota | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.7 341st | 112.1 74th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 116.5 352nd | 99.1 45th |
| Possessions a game | 70.8 184th | 68.0 363rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.9% 226th | 52.8% 49th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.3% 301st | 47.7% 23rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.1% 292nd | 19.0% 288th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.4% 310th | 33.5% 83rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 134th | 0.22 347th |
The widest gap: Minnesota's defense (45th) against W Illinois's offense (341st), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- W Illinois 25, Minnesota 41
- First-half margin
- Minnesota by 16.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.9
- Projected second half
- W Illinois 31, Minnesota 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- W Illinois, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 32.0 scored, 32.2 allowed
- Minnesota, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 39.2 scored, 25.8 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
W Illinois
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makai KvammeG | 28 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Daivion TraylorF | 26 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Jack RileyF | 25 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Hunter VaughnG | 25 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Danny StephensF | 22 | 9.1 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Shay StephensG | 20 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Davee FlowersG | 18 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Matthieu BiembongoF | 15 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 3+ reb 42% | |||||
Minnesota
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac AsumaG | 31 | 15.2 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Bobby DurkinF | 29 | 10.7 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 50% · 4+ ast 44% | |||||
| Kyan EvansG | 29 | 10.5 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 56% · 5+ ast 51% | |||||
| Jaylen Crocker-JohnsonF | 25 | 13.5 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 6+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Grayson GroveF | 22 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 60% | |||||
| Nolan GrovesG | 20 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Malick KordelC | 14 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 52% | |||||
| Malachi PalmerG | 11 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 2+ reb 37% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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