North Dakota 50, Minnesota 85
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at The Barn by Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Minnesota. North Dakota our rank 258 · 1-2; Minnesota our rank 64 · 4-0.
Who won North Dakota vs Minnesota?
Final: Minnesota 85, North Dakota 50. Before tip-off the model gave Minnesota a 96% chance to win, with a projected margin of 21.0 points for Minnesota. Bobby Durkin scored 16 for Minnesota; Jayden Moore had 13 for North Dakota.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Isaac Asuma: North Dakota 6%Minnesota 94%
The white mark is the call with him: Minnesota 96%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Minnesota without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | ||||
| Isaac Asuma | 2.4 | 94% | −2 | 57–75 |
| Jaylen Crocker-Johnson | 2.3 | 94% | −2 | 57–75 |
| Bobby Durkin | 2.1 | 94% | −2 | 56–75 |
| Kyan Evans | 1.9 | 94% | −2 | 56–75 |
Change is in Minnesota's win chance, in points. Scores read North Dakota, then Minnesota. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
North Dakota
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Minnesota
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| North Dakota | Minnesota | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 105.3 157th | 112.1 74th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 115.7 344th | 99.1 45th |
| Possessions a game | 70.7 196th | 68.0 363rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.4% 265th | 52.8% 49th |
| Opponents' shooting | 54.4% 355th | 47.7% 23rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.8% 49th | 19.0% 288th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.9% 24th | 33.5% 83rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.30 42nd | 0.22 347th |
The widest gap: Minnesota's offense (74th) against North Dakota's defense (344th), of 365 teams.
First half
Minnesota led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 4.5 points and the total by 4.2.
- At halftime
- North Dakota 25, Minnesota 41
- Projected halftime score
- North Dakota 25, Minnesota 37
- First-half margin
- Minnesota by 11.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
North Dakota
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach KraftG | 25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Carter EvansonG | 25 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Samuel HincapieG | 22 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Jayden MooreG | 22 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Zack ParksG | 21 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Luke WinkelG | 18 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Josh JonesC | 17 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler WagnerG | 12 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Jayden ThomasF | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Minnesota
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac AsumaG | 30 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Kyan EvansG | 28 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
| Bobby DurkinF | 26 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| Jaylen Crocker-JohnsonF | 25 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Kai ShinholsterG | 20 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| Grayson GroveF | 19 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Nolan GrovesG | 17 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Malick KordelC | 16 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Malachi PalmerG | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |