W Illinois 58, Valparaiso 80
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Athletics-Recreation Center. W Illinois our rank 356 · 1-3; Valparaiso our rank 114 · 2-1.
Who won W Illinois vs Valparaiso?
Final: Valparaiso 80, Western Illinois 58. Before tip-off the model gave Valparaiso a 93% chance to win, with a projected margin of 18.2 points for Valparaiso. JT Pettigrew scored 18 for Valparaiso; Daivion Traylor had 14 for W Illinois.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Rakim Chaney: W Illinois 9%Valparaiso 91%
The white mark is the call with him: Valparaiso 93%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Valparaiso without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valparaiso | ||||
| Rakim Chaney | 1.9 | 91% | −2 | 58–74 |
| JT Pettigrew | 1.7 | 91% | −2 | 58–75 |
| Justus McNair | 1.2 | 92% | −1 | 58–75 |
| Carter Hopoi | 1.1 | 92% | −1 | 58–75 |
Change is in Valparaiso's win chance, in points. Scores read W Illinois, then Valparaiso. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
W Illinois
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Valparaiso
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| W Illinois | Valparaiso | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.7 341st | 107.3 118th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 116.5 352nd | 105.3 119th |
| Possessions a game | 70.8 184th | 69.4 315th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.9% 226th | 50.5% 184th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.3% 301st | 47.9% 30th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.1% 292nd | 16.0% 12th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.4% 310th | 31.7% 185th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 134th | 0.30 43rd |
The widest gap: Valparaiso's offense (118th) against W Illinois's defense (352nd), of 365 teams.
First half
Valparaiso led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 9.0 points and the total by 5.2.
- At halftime
- W Illinois 19, Valparaiso 38
- Projected halftime score
- W Illinois 26, Valparaiso 36
- First-half margin
- Valparaiso by 10.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
W Illinois
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack RileyF | 36 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
| Daivion TraylorF | 28 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Hunter VaughnG | 26 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Makai KvammeG | 26 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Danny StephensF | 19 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Matthieu BiembongoF | 16 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Davee FlowersG | 13 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Shay StephensG | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan CainG | 11 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Valparaiso
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sader ServilusG | 27 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Carter HopoiF | 25 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 0 |
| JT PettigrewF | 24 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Rakim ChaneyG | 24 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Rajan RobertsG | 22 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Terron GarrettG | 20 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Justus McNairG | 19 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Bruno AlocenG | 18 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Kobe WalkerF | 8 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 |