Troy v Valparaiso
Saturday, November 21, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Pensacola Bay Center. Troy our rank 226 · 1-2; Valparaiso our rank 114 · 2-1.
Who will win Troy vs Valparaiso?
The model gives Valparaiso a 74% chance to beat Troy, with a projected score of Valparaiso 75, Troy 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valparaiso | |||||
| ChaneyG · 34 min | 17.6 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 15+ 64% | |
| PettigrewF · 27 min | 14.5 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 15+ 46% | |
| McNairG · 26 min | 10.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 10+ 48% | |
| HopoiF · 27 min | 9.6 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 10+ 45% | |
| Troy | |||||
| OdayG · 30 min | 15.0 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 15+ 49% | |
| HutchinsonG · 32 min | 12.0 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 10+ 62% | |
| PachecoG · 24 min | 8.3 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 10+ 36% | |
| DiggsF · 23 min | 8.0 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 10+ 33% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Rakim Chaney: Troy 31%Valparaiso 69%
The white mark is the call with him: Valparaiso 74%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Valparaiso without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valparaiso | ||||
| Rakim Chaney | 1.9 | 69% | −5 | 69–74 |
| JT Pettigrew | 1.7 | 69% | −5 | 69–74 |
| Justus McNair | 1.2 | 71% | −3 | 69–75 |
| Carter Hopoi | 1.1 | 71% | −3 | 69–75 |
| Troy | ||||
| Donovan Oday | 1.5 | 78% | +4 | 67–76 |
Change is in Valparaiso's win chance, in points. Scores read Troy, then Valparaiso. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Troy 1-2LLW
- Nov 10W 74-69vs LMUCovered +1.5 · Under 144.5
- Nov 6L 68-91at Florida StDidn't cover +22.5 · Over 158.5
- Nov 2L 60-71vs UMass
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 67.3 and allowing 77.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Valparaiso 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 69-81at S Dakota StDidn't cover −2.5 · Over 141.5
- Nov 6W 83-80at PurdueCovered +19.5 · Over 143.5
- Nov 2W 80-58vs W Illinois
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 77.3 and allowing 73.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Troy | Valparaiso | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.9 228th | 107.3 118th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.8 220th | 105.3 119th |
| Possessions a game | 69.2 327th | 69.4 315th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.3% 323rd | 50.5% 184th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.5% 113th | 47.9% 30th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.9% 166th | 16.0% 12th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.8% 330th | 31.7% 185th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 306th | 0.30 43rd |
The widest gap: Valparaiso's defense (119th) against Troy's offense (228th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Troy 32, Valparaiso 36
- First-half margin
- Valparaiso by 4.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.3
- Projected second half
- Troy 36, Valparaiso 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Troy, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 27.7 scored, 37.3 allowed
- Valparaiso, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 30.0 scored, 33.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Troy
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoi HutchinsonG | 32 | 12.0 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Donovan OdayG | 30 | 15.0 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 2+ ast 51% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Sam WaltersF | 24 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 40% | |||||
| Caua PachecoG | 24 | 8.3 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Robert Davis Jr.G | 24 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Caden DiggsF | 23 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Mobi IkegwurukaF | 18 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 54% | |||||
| Kerrington KielF | 14 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
Valparaiso
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rakim ChaneyG | 34 | 17.6 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.3 |
| 15+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 54% · 4+ ast 53% | |||||
| Carter HopoiF | 27 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 6+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| JT PettigrewF | 27 | 14.5 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 6+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Justus McNairG | 26 | 10.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Bruno AlocenG | 23 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Sader ServilusG | 22 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Rajan RobertsG | 17 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Terron GarrettG | 17 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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