Southern Miss v Valparaiso
Sunday, November 22, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at Pensacola Bay Center. Southern Miss our rank 225 · 2-1; Valparaiso our rank 114 · 2-1.
Who will win Southern Miss vs Valparaiso?
The model gives Valparaiso a 75% chance to beat Southern Miss, with a projected score of Valparaiso 77, Southern Miss 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valparaiso | |||||
| ChaneyG · 34 min | 17.8 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 20+ 38% | |
| PettigrewF · 27 min | 14.7 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 15+ 47% | |
| McNairG · 26 min | 10.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 10+ 49% | |
| HopoiF · 27 min | 9.8 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 10+ 47% | |
| Southern Miss | |||||
| Gaines-WyattG · 30 min | 13.8 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 15+ 42% | |
| WestonG · 27 min | 11.2 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 10+ 57% | |
| TaverasG · 24 min | 11.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 10+ 55% | |
| WallaceF · 22 min | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 10+ 51% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Rakim Chaney: Southern Miss 31%Valparaiso 69%
The white mark is the call with him: Valparaiso 75%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Valparaiso without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valparaiso | ||||
| Rakim Chaney | 1.9 | 69% | −6 | 70–76 |
| JT Pettigrew | 1.7 | 70% | −5 | 70–76 |
| Justus McNair | 1.2 | 71% | −4 | 70–76 |
| Carter Hopoi | 1.1 | 71% | −4 | 70–76 |
| Southern Miss | ||||
| Isaac Taveras | 1.1 | 78% | +3 | 69–77 |
| Brandon Weston | 0.6 | 76% | +1 | 69–77 |
Change is in Valparaiso's win chance, in points. Scores read Southern Miss, then Valparaiso. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Southern Miss 2-1WLW
- Nov 11W 84-80vs Jackson StDidn't cover −8.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 6L 57-83at Iowa StateCovered +30.5 · Under 145.5
- Nov 2W 82-35vs Tougaloo
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 74.3 and allowing 66.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Valparaiso 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 69-81at S Dakota StDidn't cover −2.5 · Over 141.5
- Nov 6W 83-80at PurdueCovered +19.5 · Over 143.5
- Nov 2W 80-58vs W Illinois
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 77.3 and allowing 73.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Southern Miss | Valparaiso | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.4 260th | 107.3 118th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.3 180th | 105.3 119th |
| Possessions a game | 71.6 95th | 69.4 315th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.1% 282nd | 50.5% 184th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.8% 275th | 47.9% 30th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.3% 306th | 16.0% 12th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.1% 101st | 31.7% 185th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 83rd | 0.30 43rd |
The widest gap: Valparaiso's defense (119th) against Southern Miss's offense (260th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Southern Miss 32, Valparaiso 36
- First-half margin
- Valparaiso by 4.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.7
- Projected second half
- Southern Miss 37, Valparaiso 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Southern Miss, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 35.3 scored, 32.7 allowed
- Valparaiso, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 30.0 scored, 33.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Southern Miss
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalyke Gaines-WyattG | 30 | 13.8 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Anthony IgiedeG | 28 | 9.7 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Brandon WestonG | 27 | 11.2 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Isaac TaverasG | 24 | 11.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 6+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Cameron WallaceF | 22 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Mike MontanoF | 19 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Max BlankC | 16 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 56% | |||||
| Chandler WattsG | 13 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
Valparaiso
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rakim ChaneyG | 34 | 17.8 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.4 |
| 20+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 55% · 4+ ast 54% | |||||
| Carter HopoiF | 27 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 6+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| JT PettigrewF | 27 | 14.7 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 47% · 2+ ast 45% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Justus McNairG | 26 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Bruno AlocenG | 23 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Sader ServilusG | 22 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Rajan RobertsG | 17 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Terron GarrettG | 17 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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