Who will win Utah vs Minnesota?
The model gives Minnesota a 59% chance to beat Utah, with a projected score of Minnesota 71, Utah 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Minnesota | |||||
| AsumaG · 34 min | 14.5 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 15+ 46% | |
| Crocker-JohnsonF · 27 min | 12.3 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 10+ 64% | |
| DurkinF · 32 min | 10.1 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 10+ 49% | |
| EvansG · 32 min | 9.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 10+ 47% | |
 Utah | |||||
| CampbellG · 36 min | 12.7 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 15+ 35% | |
| HolcombeG · 30 min | 12.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 10+ 65% | |
| AnigbataF · 31 min | 12.3 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 10+ 64% | |
| BurchG · 23 min | 7.1 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 5+ 66% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Isaac Asuma: Utah 50%Minnesota 50%
The white mark is the call with him: Minnesota 59%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Minnesota without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | ||||
| Isaac Asuma | 2.4 | 50% | −9 | 69–69 |
| Jaylen Crocker-Johnson | 2.3 | 51% | −8 | 69–70 |
| Bobby Durkin | 2.1 | 51% | −8 | 69–70 |
| Kyan Evans | 1.9 | 52% | −7 | 69–70 |
| Utah | ||||
| Jackson Holcombe | 3.4 | 70% | +11 | 67–72 |
| Trey Campbell | 3.2 | 69% | +10 | 67–72 |
| TJ Burch | 2.0 | 65% | +6 | 67–72 |
| Taison Chatman | 1.6 | 64% | +5 | 67–71 |
Change is in Minnesota's win chance, in points. Scores read Utah, then Minnesota. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Utah 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 85-64vs Weber StCovered −16.5 · Under 154.5
- Nov 5W 67-57vs TowsonCovered −8.5 · Under 137.5
- Nov 2W 66-63vs Long Beach St
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 72.7 and allowing 61.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
Minnesota 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 91-61vs SouthernCovered −26.5 · Over 142.5
- Nov 9W 63-61at CincinnatiCovered +7.5 · Under 144.5
- Nov 6W 76-62vs St ThomasDidn't cover −14.5 · Under 149.5
- Nov 2W 85-50vs North Dakota
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 78.8 and allowing 58.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Utah | Minnesota | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 109.9 91st | 112.1 74th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 100.3 66th | 99.1 45th |
| Possessions a game | 69.4 315th | 68.0 363rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.3% 125th | 52.8% 49th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.7% 267th | 47.7% 23rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.4% 349th | 19.0% 288th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.1% 225th | 33.5% 83rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 203rd | 0.22 347th |
The widest gap: Minnesota's defense (45th) against Utah's offense (91st), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Utah 32, Minnesota 33
- First-half margin
- Minnesota by 1.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.2
- Projected second half
- Utah 36, Minnesota 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Utah, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 28.3 scored, 32.0 allowed
- Minnesota, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 39.2 scored, 25.8 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Utah
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey CampbellG | 36 | 12.7 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Alec AnigbataF | 31 | 12.3 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Jackson HolcombeG | 30 | 12.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Malek GommaC | 26 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 6+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| TJ BurchG | 23 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Taison ChatmanG | 20 | 7.1 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Jaxon JohnsonF | 17 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Babacar FayeF | 12 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
Minnesota
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac AsumaG | 34 | 14.5 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 51% · 4+ ast 49% | |||||
| Bobby DurkinF | 32 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Kyan EvansG | 32 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 52% · 4+ ast 54% | |||||
| Jaylen Crocker-JohnsonF | 27 | 12.3 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Grayson GroveF | 24 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 56% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Nolan GrovesG | 20 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Malick KordelC | 13 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 56% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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