Who will win Richmond vs Liberty?
The model gives Richmond a 55% chance to beat Liberty, with a projected score of Richmond 73, Liberty 72.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Richmond | |||||
| StewartG · 26 min | 14.6 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 15+ 46% | |
| Kaiser Jr.F · 30 min | 13.5 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 15+ 40% | |
| DorriesC · 25 min | 10.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 10+ 51% | |
| BallF · 20 min | 9.9 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 10+ 47% | |
 Liberty | |||||
| CampbellG · 27 min | 12.4 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 10+ 64% | |
| SancombG · 25 min | 9.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 10+ 43% | |
| CampbellG · 22 min | 9.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 10+ 42% | |
| CarterG · 26 min | 7.6 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 5+ 69% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jamie Kaiser Jr.: Richmond 50%Liberty 50%
The white mark is the call with him: Richmond 55%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Richmond without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | ||||
| Jamie Kaiser Jr. | 1.5 | 50% | −5 | 72–72 |
| Aiden Argabright | 1.4 | 51% | −4 | 72–72 |
| Derin Saran | 1.4 | 51% | −4 | 72–72 |
| Andrew Ball | 1.0 | 52% | −3 | 73–72 |
| Liberty | ||||
| Cooper Campbell | 1.6 | 63% | +8 | 74–71 |
| Zander Carter | 0.9 | 60% | +5 | 74–71 |
| Cobi Campbell | 0.7 | 59% | +4 | 74–71 |
| Eli Sancomb | 0.7 | 59% | +4 | 74–71 |
Change is in Richmond's win chance, in points. Scores read Richmond, then Liberty. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Richmond 3-1WWWL
- Nov 12L 70-80at S IllinoisDidn't cover −2.5 · Under 150.5
- Nov 8W 79-53vs TempleCovered −1.5 · Under 150.5
- Nov 5W 107-46vs Southern Virginia
- Nov 2W 100-77vs UNC Asheville
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 89.0 and allowing 64.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
Liberty 1-1LW
- Nov 7W 113-54vs Boyce
- Nov 1L 57-72vs High Point
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 85.0 and allowing 63.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Richmond | Liberty | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 105.2 158th | 105.3 155th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 104.3 105th | 106.4 137th |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 121st | 69.0 333rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 53.3% 28th | 49.2% 279th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.3% 94th | 51.2% 238th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.8% 267th | 17.4% 107th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.8% 181st | 29.9% 287th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 336th | 0.25 247th |
The widest gap: Richmond's defense (105th) against Liberty's offense (155th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Richmond 34, Liberty 34
- First-half margin
- Richmond by 0.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.9
- Projected second half
- Richmond 39, Liberty 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Richmond, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 45.8 scored, 27.8 allowed
- Liberty, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 1 · 51.0 scored, 19.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Richmond
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Kaiser Jr.F | 30 | 13.5 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Derin SaranG | 28 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 52% · 5+ ast 46% | |||||
| Aiden ArgabrightG | 27 | 9.0 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Dominick StewartG | 26 | 14.6 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Amon DorriesC | 25 | 10.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 56% | |||||
| Andrew BallF | 20 | 9.9 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Will Harper IIIG | 13 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Chad CookF | 13 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
Liberty
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper CampbellG | 27 | 12.4 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 43% | |||||
| Zander CarterG | 26 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Eli SancombG | 25 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Eli HerbertG | 23 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Cobi CampbellG | 22 | 9.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 2+ ast 38% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Matthew SheltonG | 19 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Reece DavidsonF | 16 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
| Ryan Jones Jr.F | 15 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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