Who won UMass vs Troy?
Final: Massachusetts 71, Troy 60. Before tip-off the model gave Massachusetts a 34% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 5.1 points for Troy. Junjie Wang scored 18 for UMass; Donovan Oday had 21 for Troy.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Donovan Oday: UMass 38%Troy 62%
The white mark is the call with him: Troy 66%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Troy without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Troy | ||||
| Donovan Oday | 1.5 | 62% | −4 | 66–69 |
 UMass | ||||
| Abdullah Ahmed | 1.2 | 70% | +4 | 64–71 |
| Junjie Wang | 1.1 | 69% | +3 | 64–71 |
| Jordan Clayton | 0.7 | 68% | +2 | 65–70 |
Change is in Troy's win chance, in points. Scores read UMass, then Troy. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UMass | Troy | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.0 225th | 101.9 228th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.0 152nd | 109.8 220th |
| Possessions a game | 71.2 133rd | 69.2 327th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.4% 260th | 48.3% 323rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.8% 12th | 49.5% 113th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.3% 307th | 17.9% 166th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.4% 39th | 28.8% 330th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 355th | 0.23 306th |
The widest gap: UMass's defense (152nd) against Troy's offense (228th), of 365 teams.
First half
UMass led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 12.8 points and the total by 2.7.
- At halftime
- UMass 38, Troy 28
- Projected halftime score
- UMass 30, Troy 33
- First-half margin
- Troy by 2.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
UMass
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan ClaytonG | 35 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
| Danny CarbucciaG | 34 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Dwayne Wimbley Jr.F | 32 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 0 |
| Junjie WangF | 31 | 18 | 13 | 0 | 1 |
| Abdullah AhmedF | 17 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Noa ZemljićG | 15 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Cheick SyllaF | 14 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Dimitri ClercF | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian MartinNA | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Troy
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan OdayG | 36 | 21 | 12 | 0 | 3 |
| Jacoi HutchinsonG | 33 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| Caua PachecoG | 23 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Caden DiggsF | 21 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam WaltersF | 20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Robert Davis Jr.G | 19 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Willie Piggott Jr.G | 16 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mobi IkegwurukaF | 15 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerrington KielF | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |