Who will win Bryant vs UMass?
The model gives Massachusetts a 81% chance to beat Bryant, with a projected score of UMass 74, Bryant 64.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UMass | |||||
| WangF · 29 min | 15.3 | 6.6 | 0.9 | 15+ 51% | |
| ClaytonG · 31 min | 10.1 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 10+ 49% | |
| Wimbley Jr.F · 30 min | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 10+ 39% | |
| CarbucciaG · 32 min | 5.4 | 2.6 | 7.1 | 5+ 50% | |
 Bryant | |||||
| HarveyF · 32 min | 11.5 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 10+ 59% | |
| ThompsonF · 24 min | 9.0 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 10+ 41% | |
| PashaF · 30 min | 8.2 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 10+ 35% | |
| NnaniF · 27 min | 7.9 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 10+ 33% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Abdullah Ahmed: Bryant 22%UMass 78%
The white mark is the call with him: UMass 81%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | UMass without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMass | ||||
| Abdullah Ahmed | 1.2 | 78% | −3 | 65–73 |
| Junjie Wang | 1.1 | 78% | −3 | 65–73 |
| Jordan Clayton | 0.7 | 79% | −2 | 65–74 |
Change is in UMass's win chance, in points. Scores read Bryant, then UMass. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Bryant 1-3WLLL
- Nov 10L 55-78at ProvidenceCovered +30.5 · Under 149.5
- Nov 8L 59-68vs FairfieldDidn't cover +1.5 · Under 146.5
- Nov 5L 56-66at QuinnipiacDidn't cover +6.5 · Under 148.5
- Nov 2W 80-75vs Siena
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 62.5 and allowing 71.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–2
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 3 under
UMass 2-1WLW
- Nov 11W 72-62vs UMass LowellCovered −7.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 6L 55-71vs Boston CollegeDidn't cover +6.5 · Under 144.5
- Nov 2W 71-60at Troy
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 66.0 and allowing 64.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Bryant | UMass | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 92.7 358th | 102.0 225th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 106.8 146th | 107.0 152nd |
| Possessions a game | 70.2 245th | 71.2 133rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.8% 339th | 49.4% 260th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.3% 168th | 46.8% 12th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.8% 358th | 19.3% 307th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.9% 326th | 34.4% 39th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 320th | 0.21 355th |
The widest gap: UMass's defense (152nd) against Bryant's offense (358th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Bryant 30, UMass 35
- First-half margin
- UMass by 5.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.8
- Projected second half
- Bryant 34, UMass 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Bryant, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 30.2 scored, 34.5 allowed
- UMass, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 34.7 scored, 34.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Bryant
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keegan HarveyF | 32 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Andre PashaF | 30 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 6+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Onyx NnaniF | 27 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Duane ThompsonF | 24 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Ty TabalesG | 24 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 58% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Roi BeharF | 22 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Elijah CrispinF | 20 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 38% | |||||
| Elijah HayeemsF | 14 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
UMass
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny CarbucciaG | 32 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 7.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Jordan ClaytonG | 31 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Dwayne Wimbley Jr.F | 30 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 6+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Junjie WangF | 29 | 15.3 | 6.6 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 7+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
| Abdullah AhmedF | 21 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Noa ZemljićG | 12 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 38% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Christian MartinNA | 11 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Cheick SyllaF | 11 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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