Who will win Maine vs UMass?
The model gives Massachusetts a 84% chance to beat Maine, with a projected score of UMass 75, Maine 64.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UMass | |||||
| WangF · 29 min | 15.5 | 6.6 | 1.0 | 15+ 52% | |
| ClaytonG · 31 min | 10.2 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 10+ 50% | |
| Wimbley Jr.F · 30 min | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 10+ 39% | |
| CarbucciaG · 32 min | 5.4 | 2.6 | 7.2 | 5+ 50% | |
 Maine | |||||
| WilliamsG · 30 min | 10.0 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 10+ 48% | |
| Garcia AdstenG · 25 min | 8.1 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 10+ 34% | |
| FlaggF · 25 min | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 5+ 65% | |
| LopesG · 18 min | 6.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 5+ 57% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Abdullah Ahmed: Maine 18%UMass 82%
The white mark is the call with him: UMass 84%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | UMass without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMass | ||||
| Abdullah Ahmed | 1.2 | 82% | −2 | 64–75 |
| Junjie Wang | 1.1 | 82% | −2 | 64–75 |
| Jordan Clayton | 0.7 | 83% | −1 | 64–75 |
Change is in UMass's win chance, in points. Scores read Maine, then UMass. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Maine 1-3LWLL
- Nov 10L 65-71at Rhode IslandCovered +20.5 · Under 139.5
- Nov 8L 62-68vs ManhattanDidn't cover −3.5 · Under 137.5
- Nov 5W 74-72at Sacred HeartCovered +5.5 · Over 142.5
- Nov 2L 56-83at Providence
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 64.2 and allowing 73.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
UMass 2-1WLW
- Nov 11W 72-62vs UMass LowellCovered −7.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 6L 55-71vs Boston CollegeDidn't cover +6.5 · Under 144.5
- Nov 2W 71-60at Troy
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 66.0 and allowing 64.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Maine | UMass | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 92.7 357th | 102.0 225th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.8 191st | 107.0 152nd |
| Possessions a game | 69.9 276th | 71.2 133rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.7% 174th | 49.4% 260th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.4% 21st | 46.8% 12th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.0% 339th | 19.3% 307th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 26.4% 363rd | 34.4% 39th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 73rd | 0.21 355th |
The widest gap: UMass's defense (152nd) against Maine's offense (357th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Maine 30, UMass 36
- First-half margin
- UMass by 6.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.2
- Projected second half
- Maine 34, UMass 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Maine, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 27.0 scored, 27.8 allowed
- UMass, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 34.7 scored, 34.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Maine
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre WilliamsG | 30 | 10.0 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Villiam Garcia AdstenG | 25 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Ace FlaggF | 25 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Killian GribbenF | 22 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Hudson FranzG | 19 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Yanis BambaF | 19 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Ayden EvansF | 18 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Darius LopesG | 18 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
UMass
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny CarbucciaG | 32 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 7.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Jordan ClaytonG | 31 | 10.2 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 46% | |||||
| Dwayne Wimbley Jr.F | 30 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 6+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Junjie WangF | 29 | 15.5 | 6.6 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 7+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
| Abdullah AhmedF | 21 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Noa ZemljićG | 12 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Christian MartinNA | 12 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Cheick SyllaF | 12 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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