Maine 56, Providence 83
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Amica Mutual Pavilion. Maine our rank 322 · 1-3; Providence our rank 65 · 2-1.
Who won Maine vs Providence?
Final: Providence 83, Maine 56. Before tip-off the model gave Providence a 98% chance to win, with a projected margin of 26.1 points for Providence. Jacob Bannarbie scored 14 for Providence; Hudson Franz had 13 for Maine.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Miles Byrd: Maine 3%Providence 97%
The white mark is the call with him: Providence 98%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Providence without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Providence | ||||
| Miles Byrd | 3.3 | 97% | −1 | 56–79 |
| Devin Vanterpool | 2.6 | 97% | −1 | 56–79 |
| Malik Mack | 2.3 | 97% | −1 | 56–79 |
| Gavin Hightower | 2.2 | 97% | −1 | 56–80 |
Change is in Providence's win chance, in points. Scores read Maine, then Providence. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Maine
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Providence
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Maine | Providence | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 92.7 357th | 110.1 89th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.8 191st | 97.6 37th |
| Possessions a game | 69.9 276th | 72.4 39th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.7% 174th | 49.3% 270th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.4% 21st | 50.3% 168th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.0% 339th | 19.1% 290th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 26.4% 363rd | 33.8% 67th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 73rd | 0.22 351st |
The widest gap: Providence's defense (37th) against Maine's offense (357th), of 365 teams.
First half
Providence led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 6.3 points and the total by 3.4.
- At halftime
- Maine 26, Providence 34
- Projected halftime score
- Maine 25, Providence 39
- First-half margin
- Providence by 14.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Maine
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre WilliamsG | 28 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Ace FlaggF | 26 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Hudson FranzG | 23 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Killian GribbenF | 20 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Villiam Garcia AdstenG | 20 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ayden EvansF | 20 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Yanis BambaF | 16 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Darius LopesG | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Caleb CrawfordG | 14 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Providence
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin HightowerG | 30 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Malik MackG | 27 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
| Miles ByrdG | 25 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Jacob BannarbieF | 25 | 14 | 10 | 1 | 0 |
| Leonardo MarangonF | 23 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Ryan MelaG | 20 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Ryan SabolG | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon BardwellF | 14 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Arrinten PageF | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |