Who will win Troy vs NC State?
The model gives NC State a 97% chance to beat Troy, with a projected score of NC State 84, Troy 64. The spread is NC State −22.5, with an over/under of 148.5. The model makes it NC State by 20.9, 1.6 points toward Troy, and projects 148 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 NC State | |||||
| LubinF · 26 min | 14.4 | 7.3 | 1.7 | 15+ 45% | |
| McNeil Jr.G · 28 min | 13.3 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 15+ 38% | |
| EdmeadG · 29 min | 12.9 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 15+ 36% | |
| HammondG · 25 min | 12.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 15+ 36% | |
 Troy | |||||
| OdayG · 29 min | 13.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 15+ 40% | |
| HutchinsonG · 31 min | 10.7 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 10+ 53% | |
| PachecoG · 23 min | 7.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 5+ 69% | |
| DiggsF · 22 min | 7.3 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 5+ 67% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Ven-Allen Lubin: Troy 6%NC State 94%
The white mark is the call with him: NC State 97%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | NC State without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC State | ||||
| Ven-Allen Lubin | 3.5 | 94% | −3 | 65–83 |
| Paul McNeil Jr. | 3.0 | 95% | −2 | 65–83 |
| Christian Hammond | 2.9 | 95% | −2 | 65–83 |
| Preston Edmead | 2.4 | 95% | −2 | 65–83 |
| Troy | ||||
| Donovan Oday | 1.5 | 98% | +1 | 63–85 |
Change is in NC State's win chance, in points. Scores read Troy, then NC State. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | NC State −22.5 | 148.5 |
| Model | NC State −20.9 | 148.0 |
| Gap | 1.6 toward Troy | 0.5 lower |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Troy | NC State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.9 228th | 114.7 55th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.8 220th | 99.7 52nd |
| Possessions a game | 69.2 327th | 71.0 157th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.3% 323rd | 51.9% 89th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.5% 113th | 50.2% 164th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.9% 166th | 18.6% 247th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.8% 330th | 33.5% 89th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 306th | 0.22 337th |
The widest gap: NC State's defense (52nd) against Troy's offense (228th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Troy 29, NC State 40
- First-half margin
- NC State by 11.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.4
- Projected second half
- Troy 35, NC State 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Troy, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 27.7 scored, 37.3 allowed
- NC State, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 40.7 scored, 24.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Troy
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoi HutchinsonG | 31 | 10.7 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 3+ ast 54% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Donovan OdayG | 29 | 13.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Sam WaltersF | 23 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Robert Davis Jr.G | 23 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Caua PachecoG | 23 | 7.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Caden DiggsF | 22 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Mobi IkegwurukaF | 18 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 51% | |||||
| Kerrington KielF | 14 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
NC State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston EdmeadG | 29 | 12.9 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Paul McNeil Jr.G | 28 | 13.3 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 3.2 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 56% · 3+ threes 55% | |||||
| Ven-Allen LubinF | 26 | 14.4 | 7.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 8+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Christian HammondG | 25 | 12.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Darius AdamsG | 24 | 10.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Eemeli YalahoF | 20 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Kyle EvansF | 20 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 6+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| Zymicah WilkinsF | 10 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 46% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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