CSU Northridge at Troy
Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Trojan Arena. CSU Northridge our rank 186 · 1-2; Troy our rank 226 · 1-2.
Who will win CSU Northridge vs Troy?
The model gives Troy a 56% chance to beat Cal State Northridge, with a projected score of Troy 76, CSU Northridge 75.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy | |||||
| OdayG · 31 min | 16.9 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 15+ 60% | |
| HutchinsonG · 33 min | 13.5 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 15+ 40% | |
| PachecoG · 24 min | 9.3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 10+ 43% | |
| DiggsF · 23 min | 8.8 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 10+ 40% | |
| CSU Northridge | |||||
| BallewG · 29 min | 16.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 15+ 58% | |
| DavisG · 31 min | 13.8 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 15+ 42% | |
| OmotF · 28 min | 10.8 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 10+ 54% | |
| HicksG · 24 min | 10.5 | 5.7 | 0.9 | 10+ 52% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Donovan Oday: CSU Northridge 49%Troy 51%
The white mark is the call with him: Troy 56%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Troy without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy | ||||
| Donovan Oday | 1.5 | 51% | −5 | 76–76 |
| CSU Northridge | ||||
| Josiah Davis | 0.8 | 60% | +4 | 74–77 |
| Brooklyn Hicks | 0.8 | 60% | +4 | 74–77 |
Change is in Troy's win chance, in points. Scores read CSU Northridge, then Troy. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
CSU Northridge 1-2LLW
- Nov 12W 108-69vs Grace (CA)
- Nov 6L 78-95at Kansas StDidn't cover +10.5 · Over 165.5
- Nov 4L 67-79at Wichita St
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 84.3 and allowing 81.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| CSU Northridge | Troy | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.7 235th | 101.9 228th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.7 167th | 109.8 220th |
| Possessions a game | 74.2 3rd | 69.2 327th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.9% 292nd | 48.3% 323rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.4% 101st | 49.5% 113th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.9% 161st | 17.9% 166th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.7% 119th | 28.8% 330th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 179th | 0.23 306th |
The widest gap: CSU Northridge's defense (167th) against Troy's offense (228th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- CSU Northridge 35, Troy 36
- First-half margin
- Troy by 0.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.9
- Projected second half
- CSU Northridge 40, Troy 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- CSU Northridge, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 42.0 scored, 47.0 allowed
- Troy, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 27.7 scored, 37.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
CSU Northridge
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josiah DavisG | 31 | 13.8 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 0.1 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 50% · 7+ ast 48% | |||||
| Mikah BallewG | 29 | 16.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| 15+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 48% · 3+ threes 40% | |||||
| BJ OmotF | 28 | 10.8 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Brooklyn HicksG | 24 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 6+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Jael MartinF | 19 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
| Keziah EkissiG | 18 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Emmanuel StephenC | 11 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 3+ reb 50% | |||||
Troy
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoi HutchinsonG | 33 | 13.5 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 4+ ast 57% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Donovan OdayG | 31 | 16.9 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 60% · 6+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Sam WaltersF | 24 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Caua PachecoG | 24 | 9.3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Robert Davis Jr.G | 24 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Caden DiggsF | 23 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Mobi IkegwurukaF | 18 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
| Kerrington KielF | 13 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…