Who will win Missouri vs Marquette?
The model gives Marquette a 53% chance to beat Missouri, with a projected score of Marquette 75, Missouri 74.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marquette | |||||
| ParhamF · 27 min | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 10+ 64% | |
| StevensG · 26 min | 9.9 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 10+ 47% | |
| James Jr.G · 23 min | 8.4 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 10+ 36% | |
| MinessaleG · 19 min | 8.3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 10+ 35% | |
 Missouri | |||||
| Crowe Jr.G · 31 min | 16.3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 15+ 56% | |
| TillerF · 29 min | 12.0 | 7.0 | 1.4 | 10+ 62% | |
| Mitchell Jr.G · 20 min | 9.9 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 10+ 47% | |
| BryantF · 24 min | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 10+ 45% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Sananda Fru: Missouri 62%Marquette 38%
The white mark is the call with him: Marquette 53%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Marquette without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette | ||||
| Sananda Fru | 4.1 | 38% | −15 | 76–73 |
| Nigel James Jr. | 3.0 | 42% | −11 | 76–74 |
| Royce Parham | 2.9 | 42% | −11 | 76–74 |
| Nolan Minessale | 2.9 | 42% | −11 | 76–74 |
| Missouri | ||||
| Bryson Tiller | 4.0 | 69% | +16 | 72–77 |
| Mark Mitchell Jr. | 3.3 | 66% | +13 | 73–77 |
| Kennard Davis Jr. | 3.2 | 66% | +13 | 73–77 |
| Trent Pierce | 2.8 | 64% | +11 | 73–77 |
Change is in Marquette's win chance, in points. Scores read Missouri, then Marquette. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Missouri 2-1WLW
- Nov 9W 96-58vs SIUECovered −29.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 6L 84-90vs Saint LouisDidn't cover −2.5 · Over 161.5
- Nov 3W 111-50vs Cleveland St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 97.0 and allowing 66.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
Marquette 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 70-84at MichiganDidn't cover +3.5 · Under 156.5
- Nov 6W 93-32vs Detroit MercyCovered −32.5 · Under 154.5
- Nov 2W 78-43vs Mercyhurst
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 80.3 and allowing 53.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Missouri | Marquette | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 120.0 13th | 114.7 56th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 98.6 42nd | 92.0 11th |
| Possessions a game | 70.2 245th | 71.0 157th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 54.1% 14th | 50.0% 224th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.2% 82nd | 47.7% 26th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 15.6% 4th | 16.4% 20th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.1% 102nd | 35.2% 20th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 167th | 0.21 359th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Missouri 35, Marquette 35
- First-half margin
- Marquette by 0.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.3
- Projected second half
- Missouri 40, Marquette 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Missouri, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 47.3 scored, 30.3 allowed
- Marquette, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 34.7 scored, 22.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Missouri
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Crowe Jr.G | 31 | 16.3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Bryson TillerF | 29 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 7+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Kennard Davis Jr.G | 27 | 9.1 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Trent PierceG | 25 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Toni BryantF | 24 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Jamier JonesG | 20 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Mark Mitchell Jr.G | 20 | 9.9 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 43% | |||||
Marquette
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royce ParhamF | 27 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 6+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Adrien StevensG | 26 | 9.9 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Sananda FruF | 24 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 6+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
| Nigel James Jr.G | 23 | 8.4 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 58% · 4+ ast 50% | |||||
| Nolan MinessaleG | 19 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Damarius OwensSF | 16 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Colin PorterG | 15 | 6.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 2+ reb 40% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Alex EgbuonuSF | 15 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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