Mercyhurst 43, Marquette 78
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at Fiserv Forum. Mercyhurst our rank 311 · 1-3; Marquette our rank 21 · 2-1.
Who won Mercyhurst vs Marquette?
Final: Marquette 78, Mercyhurst 43. Before tip-off the model gave Marquette a 99% chance to win, with a projected margin of 30.7 points for Marquette. Joshua Clark scored 18 for Marquette; Jake Lemelman had 16 for Mercyhurst.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Sananda Fru: Mercyhurst 1%Marquette 99%
The white mark is the call with him: Marquette 99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Marquette without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette | ||||
| Sananda Fru | 4.1 | 99% | 0 | 54–80 |
| Nigel James Jr. | 3.0 | 99% | 0 | 53–81 |
| Royce Parham | 2.9 | 99% | 0 | 53–81 |
| Nolan Minessale | 2.9 | 99% | 0 | 53–81 |
Change is in Marquette's win chance, in points. Scores read Mercyhurst, then Marquette. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…
Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Mercyhurst
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Marquette
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Mercyhurst | Marquette | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 96.2 322nd | 114.7 56th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.9 257th | 92.0 11th |
| Possessions a game | 68.8 344th | 71.0 157th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.2% 349th | 50.0% 224th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.9% 281st | 47.7% 26th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.6% 132nd | 16.4% 20th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.9% 289th | 35.2% 20th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 283rd | 0.21 359th |
The widest gap: Marquette's defense (11th) against Mercyhurst's offense (322nd), of 365 teams.
First half
Marquette led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 5.1 points and the total by 12.8.
- At halftime
- Mercyhurst 14, Marquette 36
- Projected halftime score
- Mercyhurst 23, Marquette 40
- First-half margin
- Marquette by 16.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Mercyhurst
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake LemelmanG | 32 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Geoff SprouseG | 27 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Hunter Te RatanaG | 25 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron JohnsonF | 23 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Or FaranG | 23 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Shane KirkerF | 23 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Deraje AgbaosiF | 22 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Markus Maxwell-GrimesG | 15 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Chris LemanF | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Marquette
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sananda FruF | 23 | 12 | 12 | 1 | 0 |
| Adrien StevensG | 22 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Nigel James Jr.G | 21 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Royce ParhamF | 20 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 1 |
| Nolan MinessaleG | 19 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Damarius OwensSF | 17 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Joshua ClarkF | 17 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Alex EgbuonuSF | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Phillips IISF | 14 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 |