Mercyhurst at James Madison
Sunday, November 15, 2026, 4:00 PM ET at Atlantic Union Bank Center. Mercyhurst our rank 311 · 1-3; James Madison our rank 167 · 1-2.
Who will win Mercyhurst vs James Madison?
The model gives James Madison a 84% chance to beat Mercyhurst, with a projected score of James Madison 77, Mercyhurst 66.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | |||||
| LeeG · 26 min | 13.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 15+ 38% | |
| MyersG · 27 min | 12.4 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 10+ 65% | |
| SundraF · 27 min | 9.3 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 10+ 43% | |
| WindhamG · 27 min | 8.7 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 10+ 39% | |
| Mercyhurst | |||||
| LemelmanG · 33 min | 16.6 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 15+ 59% | |
| SprouseG · 31 min | 9.1 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 10+ 41% | |
| JohnsonF · 27 min | 9.1 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 10+ 42% | |
| Te RatanaG · 24 min | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 10+ 34% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Brandon Lee: Mercyhurst 20%James Madison 80%
The white mark is the call with him: James Madison 84%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | James Madison without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | ||||
| Brandon Lee | 1.6 | 80% | −4 | 67–76 |
| K.J. Windham | 1.0 | 82% | −2 | 66–76 |
| Adrian Myers | 0.9 | 82% | −2 | 66–76 |
| Garrett Sundra | 0.9 | 82% | −2 | 66–76 |
Change is in James Madison's win chance, in points. Scores read Mercyhurst, then James Madison. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Mercyhurst 1-3LLWL
- Nov 12L 57-72at Penn StateCovered +20.5 · Under 145.5
- Nov 7W 89-50vs Penn State Shenango
- Nov 5L 56-83at Notre DameDidn't cover +21.5 · Over 137.5
- Nov 2L 43-78at Marquette
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 61.2 and allowing 70.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Mercyhurst | James Madison | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 96.2 322nd | 105.4 153rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.9 257th | 109.7 217th |
| Possessions a game | 68.8 344th | 70.2 245th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.2% 349th | 50.4% 192nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.9% 281st | 50.9% 209th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.6% 132nd | 16.7% 47th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.9% 289th | 32.5% 136th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 283rd | 0.25 251st |
The widest gap: James Madison's defense (217th) against Mercyhurst's offense (322nd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Mercyhurst 30, James Madison 37
- First-half margin
- James Madison by 6.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.9
- Projected second half
- Mercyhurst 35, James Madison 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Mercyhurst, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 27.5 scored, 33.0 allowed
- James Madison, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 38.3 scored, 33.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Mercyhurst
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake LemelmanG | 33 | 16.6 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
| 15+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 46% · 5+ ast 53% | |||||
| Geoff SprouseG | 31 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 2.8 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 51% · 3+ threes 49% | |||||
| Cameron JohnsonF | 27 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Deraje AgbaosiF | 25 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 6+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
| Hunter Te RatanaG | 24 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Marcus JacksonG | 24 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Shane KirkerF | 19 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Markus Maxwell-GrimesG | 16 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 53% to play · 5+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
Missed the last game: Or Faran (17 min a game) and Markus Maxwell-Grimes (19 min a game).
James Madison
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian MyersG | 27 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Preston FowlerF | 27 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| K.J. WindhamG | 27 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Garrett SundraF | 27 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 6+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Brandon LeeG | 26 | 13.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Paul Jones IIIG | 20 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Gage LattimoreG | 19 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Jacob HogarthF | 15 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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