Mercyhurst at Canisius
Friday, November 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ET at Koessler Athletic Center. Mercyhurst our rank 311 · 1-3; Canisius our rank 364 · 2-2.
Who will win Mercyhurst vs Canisius?
The model gives Mercyhurst a 68% chance to beat Canisius, with a projected score of Mercyhurst 73, Canisius 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercyhurst | |||||
| LemelmanG · 34 min | 18.5 | 2.9 | 6.0 | 20+ 41% | |
| SprouseG · 32 min | 10.1 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 10+ 49% | |
| JohnsonF · 27 min | 10.1 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 10+ 49% | |
| Te RatanaG · 25 min | 9.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 10+ 41% | |
| Canisius | |||||
| Wilson Jr.G · 31 min | 16.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 15+ 60% | |
| EfindaF · 29 min | 11.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 10+ 60% | |
| SigonaG · 28 min | 10.5 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 10+ 52% | |
| RyanF · 30 min | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 10+ 44% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Mercyhurst 1-3LLWL
- Nov 12L 57-72at Penn StateCovered +20.5 · Under 145.5
- Nov 7W 89-50vs Penn State Shenango
- Nov 5L 56-83at Notre DameDidn't cover +21.5 · Over 137.5
- Nov 2L 43-78at Marquette
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 61.2 and allowing 70.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Canisius 2-2LLWW
- Nov 12W 86-81at BrownCovered +12.5 · Over 137.5
- Nov 9W 117-60vs Hiram
- Nov 7L 49-88vs St BonaventureDidn't cover +9.5 · Under 149.5
- Nov 2L 57-97at Penn State
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 77.2 and allowing 81.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Mercyhurst | Canisius | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 96.2 322nd | 93.8 347th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.9 257th | 119.6 363rd |
| Possessions a game | 68.8 344th | 69.9 276th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.2% 349th | 50.4% 192nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.9% 281st | 54.3% 353rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.6% 132nd | 20.1% 342nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.9% 289th | 29.4% 309th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 283rd | 0.25 236th |
The widest gap: Mercyhurst's defense (257th) against Canisius's offense (347th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Mercyhurst 34, Canisius 32
- First-half margin
- Mercyhurst by 2.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.1
- Projected second half
- Mercyhurst 39, Canisius 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 74.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Mercyhurst, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 27.5 scored, 33.0 allowed
- Canisius, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 35.2 scored, 34.8 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Mercyhurst
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake LemelmanG | 34 | 18.5 | 2.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 |
| 20+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 52% · 6+ ast 53% | |||||
| Geoff SprouseG | 32 | 10.1 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 3.1 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 2+ ast 56% · 3+ threes 54% | |||||
| Cameron JohnsonF | 27 | 10.1 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 6+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Deraje AgbaosiF | 25 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 6+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Hunter Te RatanaG | 25 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Marcus JacksonG | 24 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Shane KirkerF | 19 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Markus Maxwell-GrimesG | 16 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 53% to play · 5+ pts 59% · 2+ ast 42% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
Missed the last game: Or Faran (17 min a game) and Markus Maxwell-Grimes (19 min a game).
Canisius
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wilson Jr.G | 31 | 16.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Preist RyanF | 30 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Clinton EfindaF | 29 | 11.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Vinny SigonaG | 28 | 10.5 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Nate FoutsF | 25 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| Alex MackG | 20 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Jerry GuerreroG | 16 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Will FowlerG | 11 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 27% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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