Who will win Canisius vs Buffalo?
The model gives Buffalo a 85% chance to beat Canisius, with a projected score of Buffalo 80, Canisius 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Buffalo | |||||
| SteffeG · 31 min | 15.1 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 15+ 49% | |
| Lorick IIIF · 24 min | 14.5 | 7.4 | 1.2 | 15+ 46% | |
| StarlingG · 30 min | 9.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 10+ 46% | |
| DucommunG · 27 min | 8.9 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 10+ 40% | |
 Canisius | |||||
| Wilson Jr.G · 31 min | 16.5 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 15+ 58% | |
| EfindaF · 29 min | 11.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 10+ 58% | |
| SigonaG · 27 min | 10.4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 10+ 51% | |
| RyanF · 30 min | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 10+ 43% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Antoine Lorick III: Canisius 16%Buffalo 84%
The white mark is the call with him: Buffalo 85%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Buffalo without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | ||||
| Antoine Lorick III | 0.6 | 84% | −1 | 69–80 |
Change is in Buffalo's win chance, in points. Scores read Canisius, then Buffalo. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Canisius 2-2LLWW
- Nov 12W 86-81at BrownCovered +12.5 · Over 137.5
- Nov 9W 117-60vs Hiram
- Nov 7L 49-88vs St BonaventureDidn't cover +9.5 · Under 149.5
- Nov 2L 57-97at Penn State
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 77.2 and allowing 81.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Canisius | Buffalo | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 93.8 347th | 98.6 294th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 119.6 363rd | 112.3 295th |
| Possessions a game | 69.9 276th | 71.2 133rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.4% 192nd | 49.5% 254th |
| Opponents' shooting | 54.3% 353rd | 50.1% 150th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.1% 342nd | 17.8% 155th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.4% 309th | 27.5% 355th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 236th | 0.26 169th |
The widest gap: Buffalo's offense (294th) against Canisius's defense (363rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Canisius 32, Buffalo 38
- First-half margin
- Buffalo by 6.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.7
- Projected second half
- Canisius 37, Buffalo 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Canisius, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 35.2 scored, 34.8 allowed
- Buffalo, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 42.3 scored, 36.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Canisius
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wilson Jr.G | 31 | 16.5 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Preist RyanF | 30 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Clinton EfindaF | 29 | 11.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Vinny SigonaG | 27 | 10.4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Nate FoutsF | 25 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 58% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Alex MackG | 19 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Jerry GuerreroG | 16 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Will FowlerG | 11 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 28% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
Buffalo
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew SteffeG | 31 | 15.1 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| J.J. StarlingG | 30 | 9.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| Dylan DucommunG | 27 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 58% · 3+ threes 43% | |||||
| Antoine Lorick IIIF | 24 | 14.5 | 7.4 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 8+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Mikkel TyneG | 23 | 7.3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 3+ ast 47% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Jalen PitreF | 15 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 52% | |||||
| JJ FrakesG | 12 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 2+ reb 37% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Matas ButeliauskasF | 11 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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