Canisius 57, Penn State 97
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at Bryce Jordan Center. Canisius our rank 364 · 2-2; Penn State our rank 100 · 3-1.
Who won Canisius vs Penn State?
Final: Penn State 97, Canisius 57. Before tip-off the model gave Penn State a 98% chance to win, with a projected margin of 25.4 points for Penn State. Roko Prkacin scored 28 for Penn State; Clinton Efinda had 13 for Canisius.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Roberts Blums: Canisius 3%Penn State 97%
The white mark is the call with him: Penn State 98%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Penn State without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | ||||
| Roberts Blums | 2.5 | 97% | −1 | 56–79 |
| Josh Reed | 2.2 | 97% | −1 | 55–79 |
| Brant Byers | 1.9 | 97% | −1 | 55–79 |
| Ivan Juric | 1.7 | 97% | −1 | 55–79 |
Change is in Penn State's win chance, in points. Scores read Canisius, then Penn State. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Canisius
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Penn State
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Canisius | Penn State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 93.8 347th | 112.5 70th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 119.6 363rd | 107.2 155th |
| Possessions a game | 69.9 276th | 71.1 143rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.4% 192nd | 50.3% 197th |
| Opponents' shooting | 54.3% 353rd | 51.0% 222nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.1% 342nd | 17.8% 146th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.4% 309th | 33.5% 82nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 236th | 0.36 1st |
The widest gap: Penn State's offense (70th) against Canisius's defense (363rd), of 365 teams.
First half
Penn State led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 7.1 points and the total by 10.0.
- At halftime
- Canisius 26, Penn State 47
- Projected halftime score
- Canisius 25, Penn State 38
- First-half margin
- Penn State by 13.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Canisius
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wilson Jr.G | 33 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Clinton EfindaF | 32 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 2 |
| Preist RyanF | 30 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 |
| Nate FoutsF | 25 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Vinny SigonaG | 23 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Alex MackG | 20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Will FowlerG | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jerry GuerreroG | 15 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Dorsett MulcahyG | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penn State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brant ByersF | 25 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Thomas AllardG | 25 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| Dasonte BowenG | 25 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Josh ReedF | 21 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Ivan JuricF | 20 | 14 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
| Francois WibautF | 20 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Roko PrkacinF | 20 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Roberts BlumsG | 19 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Jay RodgersG | 11 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |