New Haven at Penn State
Sunday, November 15, 2026, 4:30 PM ET at Bryce Jordan Center. New Haven our rank 316 · 1-2; Penn State our rank 100 · 3-1.
Who will win New Haven vs Penn State?
The model gives Penn State a 95% chance to beat New Haven, with a projected score of Penn State 82, New Haven 63.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | |||||
| JuricF · 26 min | 14.7 | 9.6 | 0.9 | 15+ 47% | |
| PrkacinF · 24 min | 13.6 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 15+ 40% | |
| ReedF · 28 min | 13.0 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 15+ 37% | |
| ByersF · 27 min | 10.2 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 10+ 50% | |
| New Haven | |||||
| SteeleF · 32 min | 10.3 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 10+ 50% | |
| TraoreF · 26 min | 7.5 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 5+ 68% | |
| Young Jr.G · 25 min | 7.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 5+ 66% | |
| WalkerG · 21 min | 6.1 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 5+ 56% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Roberts Blums: New Haven 7%Penn State 93%
The white mark is the call with him: Penn State 95%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Penn State without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | ||||
| Roberts Blums | 2.5 | 93% | −2 | 65–81 |
| Josh Reed | 2.2 | 93% | −2 | 64–81 |
| Brant Byers | 1.9 | 93% | −2 | 64–81 |
| Ivan Juric | 1.7 | 94% | −1 | 64–81 |
Change is in Penn State's win chance, in points. Scores read New Haven, then Penn State. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
New Haven 1-2LLW
- Nov 10W 63-55vs ArmyCovered +1.5 · Under 133.5
- Nov 6L 54-81at RutgersDidn't cover +24.5 · Under 137.5
- Nov 2L 58-74at Syracuse
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 58.3 and allowing 70.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
Penn State 3-1WWLW
- Nov 12W 72-57vs MercyhurstDidn't cover −20.5 · Under 145.5
- Nov 8L 76-82vs PittDidn't cover +2.5 · Over 153.5
- Nov 5W 97-93vs ChattanoogaDidn't cover −12.5 · Over 159.5
- Nov 2W 97-57vs Canisius
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 85.5 and allowing 72.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–3
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| New Haven | Penn State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.8 339th | 112.5 70th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.2 232nd | 107.2 155th |
| Possessions a game | 68.2 360th | 71.1 143rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.4% 186th | 50.3% 197th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.7% 25th | 51.0% 222nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.9% 282nd | 17.8% 146th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.5% 336th | 33.5% 82nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 311th | 0.36 1st |
The widest gap: Penn State's defense (155th) against New Haven's offense (339th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- New Haven 29, Penn State 39
- First-half margin
- Penn State by 10.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.1
- Projected second half
- New Haven 34, Penn State 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- New Haven, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 21.3 scored, 32.3 allowed
- Penn State, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 43.0 scored, 32.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
New Haven
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teshaun SteeleF | 32 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 6+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Zoumana TraoreF | 26 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Tristan BurthC | 25 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Danny Young Jr.G | 25 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Tim WalkerG | 21 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ ast 45% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Faquir MosleyG | 20 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Aidan LosiewiczG | 16 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Brad BallingerF | 13 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
Penn State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dasonte BowenG | 29 | 9.8 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 52% · 4+ ast 58% | |||||
| Josh ReedF | 28 | 13.0 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Brant ByersF | 27 | 10.2 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Ivan JuricF | 26 | 14.7 | 9.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 15+ pts 47% · 10+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Thomas AllardG | 25 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Roko PrkacinF | 24 | 13.6 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 6+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Francois WibautF | 19 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Jay RodgersG | 10 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 3+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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