IU Indy at Penn State
Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 6:30 PM ET at Bryce Jordan Center. IU Indy our rank 295 · 3-0; Penn State our rank 100 · 3-1.
Who will win IU Indy vs Penn State?
The model gives Penn State a 95% chance to beat IU Indianapolis, with a projected score of Penn State 92, IU Indy 73.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | |||||
| JuricF · 26 min | 16.1 | 10.3 | 1.0 | 15+ 55% | |
| PrkacinF · 24 min | 14.9 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 15+ 48% | |
| ReedF · 28 min | 14.3 | 5.1 | 0.9 | 15+ 44% | |
| ByersF · 27 min | 11.2 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 10+ 57% | |
| IU Indy | |||||
| EtchisonG · 26 min | 14.4 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 15+ 45% | |
| TinsleyF · 26 min | 11.3 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 10+ 58% | |
| StackhouseF · 18 min | 8.7 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 10+ 39% | |
| HeissG · 23 min | 7.9 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 10+ 33% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Roberts Blums: IU Indy 7%Penn State 93%
The white mark is the call with him: Penn State 95%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Penn State without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | ||||
| Roberts Blums | 2.5 | 93% | −2 | 74–91 |
| Josh Reed | 2.2 | 93% | −2 | 74–91 |
| Brant Byers | 1.9 | 93% | −2 | 74–91 |
| Ivan Juric | 1.7 | 93% | −2 | 74–91 |
| IU Indy | ||||
| Gus Etchison | 0.6 | 96% | +1 | 73–92 |
Change is in Penn State's win chance, in points. Scores read IU Indy, then Penn State. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
IU Indy 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 74-70vs S IndianaDidn't cover −8.5 · Under 163.5
- Nov 7W 75-74vs UT MartinCovered +1.5 · Under 171.5
- Nov 2W 113-76vs Miami (OH) Middletown
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 87.3 and allowing 73.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
Penn State 3-1WWLW
- Nov 12W 72-57vs MercyhurstDidn't cover −20.5 · Under 145.5
- Nov 8L 76-82vs PittDidn't cover +2.5 · Over 153.5
- Nov 5W 97-93vs ChattanoogaDidn't cover −12.5 · Over 159.5
- Nov 2W 97-57vs Canisius
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 85.5 and allowing 72.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–3
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| IU Indy | Penn State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.2 217th | 112.5 70th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 115.3 341st | 107.2 155th |
| Possessions a game | 73.3 14th | 71.1 143rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.9% 337th | 50.3% 197th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.7% 271st | 51.0% 222nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.6% 38th | 17.8% 146th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.8% 245th | 33.5% 82nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 112th | 0.36 1st |
The widest gap: Penn State's offense (70th) against IU Indy's defense (341st), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- IU Indy 34, Penn State 44
- First-half margin
- Penn State by 10.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 77.6
- Projected second half
- IU Indy 40, Penn State 48
- Second-half points, both teams
- 87.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- IU Indy, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 40.0 scored, 34.0 allowed
- Penn State, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 43.0 scored, 32.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
IU Indy
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus EtchisonG | 26 | 14.4 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Kameron TinsleyF | 26 | 11.3 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Precious IdiaruF | 24 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Peyton HeissG | 23 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Billy SmithG | 21 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Manasseh StackhouseF | 18 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Jason Clarke Jr.G | 17 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Reece HagyF | 16 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
Missed the last game: Trey Drexler (18 min a game).
Penn State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dasonte BowenG | 29 | 10.7 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 56% · 5+ ast 47% | |||||
| Josh ReedF | 28 | 14.3 | 5.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 5+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Brant ByersF | 27 | 11.2 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 57% | |||||
| Ivan JuricF | 26 | 16.1 | 10.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 10+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
| Thomas AllardG | 25 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Roko PrkacinF | 24 | 14.9 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 6+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Francois WibautF | 19 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Jay RodgersG | 10 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 3+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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