IU Indy at Morehead St
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at Ellis T. Johnson Arena. IU Indy our rank 295 · 3-0; Morehead St our rank 317 · 1-2.
Who will win IU Indy vs Morehead St?
The model gives Morehead State a 55% chance to beat IU Indianapolis, with a projected score of Morehead St 80, IU Indy 79.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morehead St | |||||
| ParkerF · 26 min | 14.9 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 15+ 48% | |
| DawsonG · 28 min | 11.3 | 1.2 | 3.6 | 10+ 58% | |
| ShawG · 16 min | 9.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 10+ 46% | |
| DayG · 21 min | 8.4 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 10+ 36% | |
| IU Indy | |||||
| EtchisonG · 27 min | 16.0 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 15+ 55% | |
| TinsleyF · 27 min | 12.6 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 15+ 34% | |
| StackhouseF · 18 min | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 10+ 43% | |
| HeissG · 23 min | 8.6 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 10+ 38% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Gus Etchison: IU Indy 42%Morehead St 58%
The white mark is the call with him: Morehead St 55%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Morehead St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IU Indy | ||||
| Gus Etchison | 0.6 | 58% | +3 | 79–81 |
Change is in Morehead St's win chance, in points. Scores read IU Indy, then Morehead St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
IU Indy 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 74-70vs S IndianaDidn't cover −8.5 · Under 163.5
- Nov 7W 75-74vs UT MartinCovered +1.5 · Under 171.5
- Nov 2W 113-76vs Miami (OH) Middletown
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 87.3 and allowing 73.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
Morehead St 1-2LWL
- Nov 7L 57-107at LouisvilleDidn't cover +38.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 5W 114-60vs Virginia Lynchburg
- Nov 2L 58-83at Western KY
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 76.3 and allowing 83.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| IU Indy | Morehead St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.2 217th | 100.3 264th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 115.3 341st | 115.8 345th |
| Possessions a game | 73.3 14th | 69.8 286th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.9% 337th | 48.2% 324th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.7% 271st | 51.5% 256th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.6% 38th | 16.6% 34th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.8% 245th | 28.5% 335th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 112th | 0.23 305th |
The widest gap: IU Indy's offense (217th) against Morehead St's defense (345th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- IU Indy 37, Morehead St 38
- First-half margin
- Morehead St by 0.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.9
- Projected second half
- IU Indy 42, Morehead St 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 84.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- IU Indy, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 40.0 scored, 34.0 allowed
- Morehead St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 39.7 scored, 36.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
IU Indy
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus EtchisonG | 27 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Kameron TinsleyF | 27 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Precious IdiaruF | 24 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Peyton HeissG | 23 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Billy SmithG | 21 | 8.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Manasseh StackhouseF | 18 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Jason Clarke Jr.G | 17 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Reece HagyF | 15 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
Missed the last game: Trey Drexler (18 min a game).
Morehead St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase DawsonG | 28 | 11.3 | 1.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 4+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Clayton ParkerF | 26 | 14.9 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Vince Dawson IIIG | 23 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 38% | |||||
| Dalman AlexanderF | 22 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 5+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Izaiah DayG | 21 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Tayvion TangioraF | 18 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
| Justin PayneG | 18 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 2+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Kyrell ShawG | 16 | 9.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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