Morehead St 58, Western KY 83
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at E.A. Diddle Arena. Morehead St our rank 317 · 1-2; Western KY our rank 135 · 3-1.
Who won Morehead St vs Western KY?
Final: Western Kentucky 83, Morehead State 58. Before tip-off the model gave Western Kentucky a 81% chance to win, with a projected margin of 10.7 points for Western Kentucky. Teagan Moore scored 17 for Western KY; Chase Dawson had 13 for Morehead St.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Teagan Moore: Morehead St 24%Western KY 76%
The white mark is the call with him: Western KY 81%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Western KY without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western KY | ||||
| Teagan Moore | 2.0 | 76% | −5 | 64–72 |
| Armelo Boone | 1.2 | 78% | −3 | 63–73 |
| Sharron Young | 1.1 | 78% | −3 | 63–73 |
| LJ Hackman | 0.8 | 79% | −2 | 63–73 |
Change is in Western KY's win chance, in points. Scores read Morehead St, then Western KY. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…
Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Morehead St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Western KY
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Morehead St | Western KY | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.3 264th | 103.3 193rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 115.8 345th | 104.4 108th |
| Possessions a game | 69.8 286th | 72.4 39th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.2% 324th | 49.7% 236th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.5% 256th | 51.1% 233rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.6% 34th | 16.7% 45th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.5% 335th | 31.3% 213th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 305th | 0.28 75th |
The widest gap: Western KY's defense (108th) against Morehead St's offense (264th), of 365 teams.
First half
Western KY led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 4.1 points and the total by 2.2.
- At halftime
- Morehead St 28, Western KY 38
- Projected halftime score
- Morehead St 29, Western KY 35
- First-half margin
- Western KY by 5.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Morehead St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase DawsonG | 30 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Vince Dawson IIIG | 23 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1 |
| Clayton ParkerF | 22 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Dalman AlexanderF | 21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Tayvion TangioraF | 20 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin PayneG | 20 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Izaiah DayG | 14 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaden PriesterF | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Davion CunninghamG | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Western KY
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armelo BooneG | 29 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 2 |
| Sharron YoungG | 23 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 3 |
| LJ HackmanG | 22 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| EJ WalkerF | 19 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Teagan MooreG | 19 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Moussa KonareF | 18 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevion LaBeauxG | 18 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Gabe WeisF | 17 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Emondrek Erkins-FordF | 14 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |