Morehead St at Ohio
Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Convocation Center (OH). Morehead St our rank 317 · 1-2; Ohio our rank 150 · 2-0.
Who will win Morehead St vs Ohio?
The model gives Ohio a 87% chance to beat Morehead State, with a projected score of Ohio 84, Morehead St 71.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio | |||||
| PaveletzkeG · 34 min | 16.5 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 15+ 58% | |
| SimmonsF · 30 min | 16.1 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 15+ 56% | |
| MitchellG · 27 min | 13.7 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 15+ 41% | |
| MakitanF · 32 min | 12.3 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 10+ 64% | |
| Morehead St | |||||
| ParkerF · 25 min | 13.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 15+ 37% | |
| DawsonG · 27 min | 9.9 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 10+ 48% | |
| ShawG · 16 min | 8.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 10+ 39% | |
| DayG · 21 min | 7.5 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 5+ 69% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kolton Mitchell: Morehead St 16%Ohio 84%
The white mark is the call with him: Ohio 87%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Ohio without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio | ||||
| Kolton Mitchell | 1.6 | 84% | −3 | 72–83 |
| Javan Simmons | 1.5 | 84% | −3 | 72–83 |
| Jackson Paveletzke | 1.2 | 85% | −2 | 71–83 |
Change is in Ohio's win chance, in points. Scores read Morehead St, then Ohio. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Morehead St 1-2LWL
- Nov 7L 57-107at LouisvilleDidn't cover +38.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 5W 114-60vs Virginia Lynchburg
- Nov 2L 58-83at Western KY
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 76.3 and allowing 83.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
Ohio 2-0WW
- Nov 7W 80-70vs NC A&TDidn't cover −14.5 · Under 161.5
- Nov 2W 86-77at South Alabama
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 83.0 and allowing 73.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Morehead St | Ohio | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.3 264th | 106.4 136th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 115.8 345th | 109.0 196th |
| Possessions a game | 69.8 286th | 71.6 95th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.2% 324th | 53.0% 38th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.5% 256th | 50.3% 174th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.6% 34th | 18.4% 223rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.5% 335th | 31.8% 179th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 305th | 0.27 107th |
The widest gap: Ohio's offense (136th) against Morehead St's defense (345th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Morehead St 33, Ohio 40
- First-half margin
- Ohio by 7.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.5
- Projected second half
- Morehead St 38, Ohio 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Morehead St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 39.7 scored, 36.0 allowed
- Ohio, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 36.0 scored, 33.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Morehead St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase DawsonG | 27 | 9.9 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 3+ ast 53% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Clayton ParkerF | 25 | 13.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Vince Dawson IIIG | 23 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 34% | |||||
| Dalman AlexanderF | 22 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| Izaiah DayG | 21 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Tayvion TangioraF | 18 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
| Justin PayneG | 18 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Kyrell ShawG | 16 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
Ohio
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson PaveletzkeG | 34 | 16.5 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Dusan MakitanF | 32 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 9+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Javan SimmonsF | 30 | 16.1 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| 15+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Siebe LedegenG | 27 | 11.6 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Kolton MitchellG | 27 | 13.7 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 3.0 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 4+ ast 43% · 3+ threes 51% | |||||
| Kyler D'AugustinoG | 15 | 6.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Marin PetkovG | 10 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 35% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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