Who will win Boise St vs Nebraska?
The model gives Nebraska a 75% chance to beat Boise State, with a projected score of Nebraska 81, Boise St 74.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nebraska | |||||
| SandfortF · 30 min | 19.4 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 20+ 46% | |
| FragerF · 26 min | 11.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 10+ 58% | |
| WilkinsonF · 17 min | 10.4 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 10+ 51% | |
| KapkeF · 18 min | 8.9 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 10+ 40% | |
 Boise St | |||||
| Wheeler-ThomasG · 29 min | 14.3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 15+ 45% | |
| ButkaF · 29 min | 13.5 | 7.9 | 2.0 | 15+ 39% | |
| NetoG · 30 min | 13.2 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 15+ 38% | |
| AhrensF · 26 min | 11.2 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 10+ 57% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Pryce Sandfort: Boise St 41%Nebraska 59%
The white mark is the call with him: Nebraska 75%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Nebraska without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska | ||||
| Pryce Sandfort | 4.9 | 59% | −16 | 76–79 |
| Braden Frager | 3.9 | 63% | −12 | 76–79 |
| Cale Jacobsen | 3.2 | 65% | −10 | 75–80 |
| Trevan Leonhardt | 2.3 | 68% | −7 | 75–80 |
| Boise St | ||||
| Spencer Ahrens | 2.5 | 81% | +6 | 73–83 |
| Dovydas Butka | 2.4 | 81% | +6 | 73–83 |
| Damari Wheeler-Thomas | 2.4 | 81% | +6 | 73–83 |
| Pearson Carmichael | 2.0 | 80% | +5 | 73–82 |
Change is in Nebraska's win chance, in points. Scores read Boise St, then Nebraska. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Boise St 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 111-79vs OaklandCovered −16.5 · Over 160.5
- Nov 8W 100-81vs ButlerCovered −2.5 · Over 159.5
- Nov 4W 132-53vs West Coast Baptist
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 114.3 and allowing 71.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
Nebraska 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 94-60vs LindenwoodDidn't cover −34.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 7W 67-58vs ProvidenceCovered −2.5 · Under 158.5
- Nov 2W 106-64vs Le Moyne
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 89.0 and allowing 60.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Boise St | Nebraska | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 116.1 38th | 118.2 19th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 102.4 89th | 94.6 21st |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 111th | 70.4 222nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.5% 60th | 52.8% 48th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.0% 222nd | 47.8% 28th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.4% 24th | 17.1% 76th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.4% 201st | 31.1% 226th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 221st | 0.28 105th |
The widest gap: Nebraska's offense (19th) against Boise St's defense (89th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Boise St 34, Nebraska 38
- First-half margin
- Nebraska by 4.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.8
- Projected second half
- Boise St 39, Nebraska 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Boise St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 57.3 scored, 33.0 allowed
- Nebraska, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 49.7 scored, 29.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Boise St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aginaldo NetoG | 30 | 13.2 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 46% · 4+ ast 46% | |||||
| Dovydas ButkaF | 29 | 13.5 | 7.9 | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 8+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Damari Wheeler-ThomasG | 29 | 14.3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Spencer AhrensF | 26 | 11.2 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Pearson CarmichaelF | 21 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Julian BowieG | 17 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Jerquarius StanbackF | 14 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Rayzhon BergersenG | 12 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 30% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
Nebraska
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pryce SandfortF | 30 | 19.4 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 3.2 |
| 20+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 44% · 3+ threes 56% | |||||
| Braden FragerF | 26 | 11.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Cale JacobsenG | 26 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Trevan LeonhardtG | 20 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 56% | |||||
| Boden KapkeF | 18 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Taj DeGourvilleG | 18 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 41% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Damon WilkinsonF | 17 | 10.4 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
| Jacob LanierG | 15 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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