South Dakota at Nebraska
Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 8:30 PM ET at Pinnacle Bank Arena. South Dakota our rank 297 · 1-3; Nebraska AP 25, our rank 18 · 3-0.
Who will win South Dakota vs Nebraska?
The model gives Nebraska a >99% chance to beat South Dakota, with a projected score of Nebraska 95, South Dakota 62.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska | |||||
| SandfortF · 27 min | 20.1 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 20+ 50% | |
| FragerF · 24 min | 12.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 10+ 63% | |
| WilkinsonF · 17 min | 11.9 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 10+ 61% | |
| KapkeF · 18 min | 10.2 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 10+ 49% | |
| South Dakota | |||||
| BuzelisG · 27 min | 11.0 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 10+ 55% | |
| SummersG · 26 min | 10.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 10+ 53% | |
| KublickasG · 23 min | 8.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 10+ 35% | |
| DotzlerG · 23 min | 7.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 5+ 67% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Pryce Sandfort: South Dakota 1%Nebraska 99%
The white mark is the call with him: Nebraska >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Nebraska without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska | ||||
| Pryce Sandfort | 4.9 | 99% | −1 | 64–92 |
| Braden Frager | 3.9 | >99% | 0 | 64–93 |
| Cale Jacobsen | 3.2 | >99% | 0 | 63–93 |
| Trevan Leonhardt | 2.3 | >99% | 0 | 63–94 |
| South Dakota | ||||
| Cade Kelderman | 0.9 | >99% | 0 | 61–95 |
Change is in Nebraska's win chance, in points. Scores read South Dakota, then Nebraska. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
South Dakota 1-3WLLL
- Nov 10L 76-87vs Hou ChristianDidn't cover −3.5 · Over 155.5
- Nov 7L 85-87vs FullertonDidn't cover −1.5 · Under 175.5
- Nov 4L 94-102vs N Kentucky
- Nov 2W 95-57vs Mount Marty
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 87.5 and allowing 83.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Nebraska 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 94-60vs LindenwoodDidn't cover −34.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 7W 67-58vs ProvidenceCovered −2.5 · Under 158.5
- Nov 2W 106-64vs Le Moyne
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 89.0 and allowing 60.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| South Dakota | Nebraska | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.7 231st | 118.2 19th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 115.1 340th | 94.6 21st |
| Possessions a game | 72.6 33rd | 70.4 222nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.5% 183rd | 52.8% 48th |
| Opponents' shooting | 56.9% 365th | 47.8% 28th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.4% 351st | 17.1% 76th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.4% 266th | 31.1% 226th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 71st | 0.28 105th |
The widest gap: Nebraska's offense (19th) against South Dakota's defense (340th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- South Dakota 28, Nebraska 46
- First-half margin
- Nebraska by 18.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.4
- Projected second half
- South Dakota 34, Nebraska 49
- Second-half points, both teams
- 83.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- South Dakota, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 41.5 scored, 43.5 allowed
- Nebraska, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 49.7 scored, 29.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
South Dakota
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince BuzelisG | 27 | 11.0 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Jahni SummersG | 26 | 10.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| Cade KeldermanG | 24 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Josiah DotzlerG | 23 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Kajus KublickasG | 23 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 2+ ast 59% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Stef van BusselC | 21 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Iliam FevryG | 16 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Ethan KizerF | 15 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
Nebraska
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pryce SandfortF | 27 | 20.1 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 3.3 |
| 20+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Braden FragerF | 24 | 12.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Cale JacobsenG | 24 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 3+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Trevan LeonhardtG | 20 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 58% · 4+ ast 51% | |||||
| Boden KapkeF | 18 | 10.2 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Taj DeGourvilleG | 18 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 47% · 4+ ast 48% | |||||
| Damon WilkinsonF | 17 | 11.9 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Jacob LanierG | 15 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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