Sam Houston at Boise St
Friday, November 20, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at ExtraMile Arena. Sam Houston our rank 146 · 2-1; Boise St our rank 61 · 3-0.
Who will win Sam Houston vs Boise St?
The model gives Boise State a 93% chance to beat Sam Houston, with a projected score of Boise St 88, Sam Houston 71.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise St | |||||
| Wheeler-ThomasG · 28 min | 16.0 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 15+ 55% | |
| ButkaF · 28 min | 15.1 | 8.8 | 2.5 | 15+ 49% | |
| NetoG · 29 min | 14.7 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 15+ 47% | |
| AhrensF · 25 min | 12.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 15+ 35% | |
| Sam Houston | |||||
| ColemanG · 27 min | 12.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 15+ 35% | |
| McDowellG · 26 min | 12.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 10+ 64% | |
| BeggG · 26 min | 9.4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 10+ 44% | |
| St. BernardF · 27 min | 7.0 | 7.1 | 1.7 | 5+ 65% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Spencer Ahrens: Sam Houston 11%Boise St 89%
The white mark is the call with him: Boise St 93%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Boise St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise St | ||||
| Spencer Ahrens | 2.5 | 89% | −4 | 73–86 |
| Dovydas Butka | 2.4 | 89% | −4 | 73–87 |
| Damari Wheeler-Thomas | 2.4 | 89% | −4 | 72–87 |
| Pearson Carmichael | 2.0 | 90% | −3 | 72–87 |
| Sam Houston | ||||
| Enel St. Bernard | 1.6 | 94% | +1 | 71–89 |
| Riccardo Greppi | 0.8 | 94% | +1 | 71–88 |
| Jacobe Coleman | 0.8 | 94% | +1 | 71–88 |
Change is in Boise St's win chance, in points. Scores read Sam Houston, then Boise St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Sam Houston 2-1LWW
- Nov 11W 85-77vs PepperdineCovered +3.5 · Over 159.5
- Nov 7W 102-59vs Howard Payne
- Nov 3L 74-96at Alabama
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 87.0 and allowing 77.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Sam Houston | Boise St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 105.0 162nd | 116.1 38th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.3 156th | 102.4 89th |
| Possessions a game | 72.4 39th | 71.4 111th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.4% 265th | 52.5% 60th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.1% 231st | 51.0% 222nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.8% 265th | 16.4% 24th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.5% 138th | 31.4% 201st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.30 44th | 0.25 221st |
The widest gap: Boise St's offense (38th) against Sam Houston's defense (156th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Sam Houston 33, Boise St 42
- First-half margin
- Boise St by 9.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.6
- Projected second half
- Sam Houston 39, Boise St 46
- Second-half points, both teams
- 84.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Sam Houston, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 41.0 scored, 32.7 allowed
- Boise St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 57.3 scored, 33.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Sam Houston
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enel St. BernardF | 27 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 1.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 7+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Jacobe ColemanG | 27 | 12.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Aidan McDowellG | 26 | 12.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Justin BeggG | 26 | 9.4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 56% · 4+ ast 43% | |||||
| Zion PipkinG | 20 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ ast 54% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Yoda OkeF | 18 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 6+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Riccardo GreppiF | 18 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
| Matt DannF | 13 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 50% | |||||
Boise St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aginaldo NetoG | 29 | 14.7 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 51% · 5+ ast 44% | |||||
| Dovydas ButkaF | 28 | 15.1 | 8.8 | 2.5 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 9+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Damari Wheeler-ThomasG | 28 | 16.0 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.3 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 50% · 4+ ast 49% | |||||
| Spencer AhrensF | 25 | 12.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Pearson CarmichaelF | 21 | 10.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Julian BowieG | 17 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Jerquarius StanbackF | 14 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Rayzhon BergersenG | 13 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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