Who won Buffalo vs Marshall?
Final: Marshall 92, Buffalo 65. Before tip-off the model gave Marshall a 74% chance to win, with a projected margin of 7.9 points for Marshall. Emmanuel Manyuon scored 22 for Marshall; Antoine Lorick III had 28 for Buffalo.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Noah Otshudi: Buffalo 29%Marshall 71%
The white mark is the call with him: Marshall 74%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Marshall without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marshall | ||||
| Noah Otshudi | 1.0 | 71% | −3 | 66–72 |
| Colt Langdon | 0.7 | 72% | −2 | 65–73 |
| Khaman Maker | 0.6 | 72% | −2 | 65–73 |
| Emmanuel Manyuon | 0.5 | 72% | −2 | 65–73 |
 Buffalo | ||||
| Antoine Lorick III | 0.6 | 75% | +1 | 65–73 |
Change is in Marshall's win chance, in points. Scores read Buffalo, then Marshall. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Buffalo
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Marshall
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Buffalo | Marshall | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 98.6 294th | 103.8 188th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.3 295th | 107.6 165th |
| Possessions a game | 71.2 133rd | 72.7 29th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.5% 254th | 51.7% 97th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.1% 150th | 49.5% 111th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.8% 155th | 18.6% 244th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 27.5% 355th | 29.7% 292nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 169th | 0.21 360th |
The widest gap: Marshall's defense (165th) against Buffalo's offense (294th), of 365 teams.
First half
Marshall led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 16.7 points and the total by 4.2.
- At halftime
- Buffalo 24, Marshall 45
- Projected halftime score
- Buffalo 30, Marshall 35
- First-half margin
- Marshall by 4.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Buffalo
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Lorick IIIF | 37 | 28 | 15 | 0 | 1 |
| Drew SteffeG | 37 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| J.J. StarlingG | 32 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Dylan DucommunG | 28 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Mikkel TyneG | 25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| JJ FrakesG | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matas ButeliauskasF | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle JonesG | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Boluwasefe JohnF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Marshall
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel ManyuonG | 34 | 22 | 11 | 3 | 4 |
| Bryce SlayG | 33 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Noah OtshudiG | 33 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 2 |
| Fazl OshodiG | 21 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Colt LangdonF | 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Khaman MakerC | 18 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Erich HardingF | 15 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Boubacar DjigoF | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke RasmussenG | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |