Buffalo at St Bonaventure
Thursday, November 19, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Reilly Center. Buffalo our rank 302 · 1-2; St Bonaventure our rank 111 · 2-1.
Who will win Buffalo vs St Bonaventure?
The model gives St. Bonaventure a 92% chance to beat Buffalo, with a projected score of St Bonaventure 82, Buffalo 66.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Bonaventure | |||||
| BillC · 25 min | 14.9 | 6.7 | 1.4 | 15+ 48% | |
| PhilipkoskiG · 26 min | 13.8 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 15+ 42% | |
| FultonG · 27 min | 12.0 | 7.3 | 1.4 | 10+ 62% | |
| Au-DukeG · 25 min | 8.0 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 10+ 33% | |
| Buffalo | |||||
| SteffeG · 30 min | 12.7 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 15+ 35% | |
| Lorick IIIF · 23 min | 12.4 | 6.4 | 0.9 | 10+ 64% | |
| StarlingG · 29 min | 8.2 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 10+ 35% | |
| DucommunG · 26 min | 7.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 5+ 69% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Zach Philipkoski: Buffalo 10%St Bonaventure 90%
The white mark is the call with him: St Bonaventure 92%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | St Bonaventure without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Bonaventure | ||||
| Zach Philipkoski | 1.4 | 90% | −2 | 67–82 |
| Benjamin Bill | 1.4 | 90% | −2 | 67–82 |
| Ari Fulton | 1.3 | 90% | −2 | 67–82 |
| Ryan Kalambay | 1.1 | 90% | −2 | 67–82 |
| Buffalo | ||||
| Antoine Lorick III | 0.6 | 93% | +1 | 66–83 |
Change is in St Bonaventure's win chance, in points. Scores read Buffalo, then St Bonaventure. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Buffalo 1-2LLW
- Nov 9W 107-65vs Penn State Schuylkill
- Nov 5L 61-80at PittDidn't cover +17.5 · Under 150.5
- Nov 2L 65-92at Marshall
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 77.7 and allowing 79.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
St Bonaventure 2-1LWW
- Nov 11W 88-64vs CornellCovered −7.5 · Under 157.5
- Nov 7W 88-49at CanisiusCovered −9.5 · Under 149.5
- Nov 2L 71-79vs Youngstown St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 82.3 and allowing 64.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Buffalo | St Bonaventure | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 98.6 294th | 107.6 115th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.3 295th | 104.0 103rd |
| Possessions a game | 71.2 133rd | 70.5 215th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.5% 254th | 52.1% 77th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.1% 150th | 47.9% 32nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.8% 155th | 17.3% 95th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 27.5% 355th | 34.2% 49th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 169th | 0.24 285th |
The widest gap: St Bonaventure's defense (103rd) against Buffalo's offense (294th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Buffalo 31, St Bonaventure 39
- First-half margin
- St Bonaventure by 8.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.8
- Projected second half
- Buffalo 36, St Bonaventure 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Buffalo, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 42.3 scored, 36.0 allowed
- St Bonaventure, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.3 scored, 25.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Buffalo
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew SteffeG | 30 | 12.7 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 52% · 4+ ast 41% | |||||
| J.J. StarlingG | 29 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Dylan DucommunG | 26 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 3+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Antoine Lorick IIIF | 23 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 7+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Mikkel TyneG | 23 | 6.2 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ ast 56% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Jalen PitreF | 15 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 43% | |||||
| JJ FrakesG | 12 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 32% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Matas ButeliauskasF | 11 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
St Bonaventure
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ari FultonG | 27 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 7+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Zach PhilipkoskiG | 26 | 13.8 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Taj Au-DukeG | 25 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Benjamin BillC | 25 | 14.9 | 6.7 | 1.4 | 0.1 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 7+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Ilia ErmakovG | 24 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 56% | |||||
| Ryan KalambayF | 16 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 46% | |||||
| Ryan HeathG | 15 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Cameron BlankenbergF | 14 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 51% to play · 5+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
Missed the last game: Cameron Blankenberg (18 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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