Youngstown St 79, St Bonaventure 71
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Reilly Center. Youngstown St our rank 233 · 1-2; St Bonaventure our rank 111 · 2-1.
Who won Youngstown St vs St Bonaventure?
Final: Youngstown State 79, St. Bonaventure 71. Before tip-off the model gave Youngstown State a 19% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 10.6 points for St. Bonaventure. Linus Holmstrom scored 26 for Youngstown St; Zach Philipkoski had 28 for St Bonaventure.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Zach Philipkoski: Youngstown St 23%St Bonaventure 77%
The white mark is the call with him: St Bonaventure 81%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | St Bonaventure without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Bonaventure | ||||
| Zach Philipkoski | 1.4 | 77% | −4 | 62–72 |
| Benjamin Bill | 1.4 | 77% | −4 | 62–72 |
| Ari Fulton | 1.3 | 78% | −3 | 62–72 |
| Ryan Kalambay | 1.1 | 78% | −3 | 62–72 |
| Youngstown St | ||||
| Jeff Nwankwo | 1.0 | 83% | +2 | 61–73 |
Change is in St Bonaventure's win chance, in points. Scores read Youngstown St, then St Bonaventure. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Youngstown St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
St Bonaventure
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Youngstown St | St Bonaventure | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.6 206th | 107.6 115th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.9 258th | 104.0 103rd |
| Possessions a game | 71.1 143rd | 70.5 215th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.3% 68th | 52.1% 77th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.3% 171st | 47.9% 32nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.6% 124th | 17.3% 95th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.9% 170th | 34.2% 49th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 158th | 0.24 285th |
The widest gap: St Bonaventure's offense (115th) against Youngstown St's defense (258th), of 365 teams.
First half
St Bonaventure led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 1.8 points and the total by 5.1.
- At halftime
- Youngstown St 32, St Bonaventure 36
- Projected halftime score
- Youngstown St 29, St Bonaventure 34
- First-half margin
- St Bonaventure by 5.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Youngstown St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaiden HaynesG | 34 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Dom AekinsG | 34 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 1 |
| Linus HolmstromG | 34 | 26 | 8 | 2 | 6 |
| Jeff NwankwoG | 30 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 |
| Kelvin AmoakoC | 24 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Japhet MoupadeleF | 16 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| Jermaine ColemanF | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jayden TylerG | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kaelen DestinG | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
St Bonaventure
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach PhilipkoskiG | 33 | 28 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Taj Au-DukeG | 31 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Ari FultonG | 31 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| Benjamin BillC | 29 | 15 | 9 | 2 | 0 |
| Ilia ErmakovG | 27 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Cameron BlankenbergF | 18 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Akbar Waheed IIIG | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan KalambayF | 11 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan HeathG | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |