Lafayette at St Bonaventure
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 4:00 PM ET at Reilly Center. Lafayette our rank 307 · 2-2; St Bonaventure our rank 111 · 2-1.
Who will win Lafayette vs St Bonaventure?
The model gives St. Bonaventure a 92% chance to beat Lafayette, with a projected score of St Bonaventure 79, Lafayette 63.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Bonaventure | |||||
| BillC · 25 min | 14.4 | 6.6 | 1.3 | 15+ 46% | |
| PhilipkoskiG · 26 min | 13.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 15+ 39% | |
| FultonG · 27 min | 11.6 | 7.1 | 1.4 | 10+ 59% | |
| Au-DukeG · 25 min | 7.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 10+ 32% | |
| Lafayette | |||||
| KeslerG · 26 min | 11.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 10+ 58% | |
| CurrieG · 24 min | 9.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 10+ 43% | |
| JacksonF · 20 min | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 10+ 36% | |
| GillF · 21 min | 7.1 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 5+ 66% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Zach Philipkoski: Lafayette 10%St Bonaventure 90%
The white mark is the call with him: St Bonaventure 92%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | St Bonaventure without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Bonaventure | ||||
| Zach Philipkoski | 1.4 | 90% | −2 | 64–78 |
| Benjamin Bill | 1.4 | 90% | −2 | 64–78 |
| Ari Fulton | 1.3 | 91% | −1 | 64–78 |
| Ryan Kalambay | 1.1 | 91% | −1 | 63–79 |
Change is in St Bonaventure's win chance, in points. Scores read Lafayette, then St Bonaventure. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Lafayette 2-2LWLW
- Nov 10W 89-46vs Penn State Lehigh Valley
- Nov 7L 57-67at Saint Joseph'sCovered +16.5 · Under 147.5
- Nov 5W 104-67vs King's
- Nov 2L 60-96at Butler
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 77.5 and allowing 69.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
St Bonaventure 2-1LWW
- Nov 11W 88-64vs CornellCovered −7.5 · Under 157.5
- Nov 7W 88-49at CanisiusCovered −9.5 · Under 149.5
- Nov 2L 71-79vs Youngstown St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 82.3 and allowing 64.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Lafayette | St Bonaventure | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.1 344th | 107.6 115th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.3 181st | 104.0 103rd |
| Possessions a game | 70.9 171st | 70.5 215th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.8% 302nd | 52.1% 77th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.8% 58th | 47.9% 32nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.1% 343rd | 17.3% 95th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.3% 314th | 34.2% 49th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 298th | 0.24 285th |
The widest gap: St Bonaventure's defense (103rd) against Lafayette's offense (344th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Lafayette 29, St Bonaventure 38
- First-half margin
- St Bonaventure by 8.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.6
- Projected second half
- Lafayette 34, St Bonaventure 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Lafayette, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 41.8 scored, 33.0 allowed
- St Bonaventure, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.3 scored, 25.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Lafayette
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper KeslerG | 26 | 11.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 2+ ast 55% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Beckett CurrieG | 24 | 9.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Jasraj GillF | 21 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 5+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Owen KellyG | 20 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Shareef JacksonF | 20 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Misha BednostinC | 13 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 18% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Shelton HentonG | 12 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 18% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| KaiMani MurdockF | 12 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
St Bonaventure
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ari FultonG | 27 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 7+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Zach PhilipkoskiG | 26 | 13.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Taj Au-DukeG | 25 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 41% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Benjamin BillC | 25 | 14.4 | 6.6 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 7+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Ilia ErmakovG | 24 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Ryan KalambayF | 16 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 44% | |||||
| Ryan HeathG | 15 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Cameron BlankenbergF | 14 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 51% to play · 5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
Missed the last game: Cameron Blankenberg (18 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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