Who will win Texas A&M vs TCU?
The model gives TCU a 53% chance to beat Texas A&M, with a projected score of TCU 78, Texas A&M 77.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TCU | |||||
| RobinsonG · 33 min | 17.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 15+ 64% | |
| SykesG · 28 min | 13.9 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 15+ 42% | |
| EdmondsF · 27 min | 13.5 | 7.6 | 1.8 | 15+ 39% | |
| HardingG · 33 min | 11.4 | 3.1 | 6.4 | 10+ 58% | |
 Texas A&M | |||||
| HaggertyG · 27 min | 17.8 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 20+ 38% | |
| PopeG · 25 min | 13.8 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 15+ 41% | |
| ShelleyF · 22 min | 9.7 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 10+ 46% | |
| MgbakoF · 22 min | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 10+ 40% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Xavier Edmonds: Texas A&M 61%TCU 39%
The white mark is the call with him: TCU 53%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | TCU without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | ||||
| Xavier Edmonds | 3.7 | 39% | −14 | 79–76 |
| Micah Robinson | 3.6 | 39% | −14 | 79–76 |
| Brock Harding | 3.1 | 41% | −12 | 78–76 |
| Tanner Toolson | 2.8 | 42% | −11 | 78–76 |
| Texas A&M | ||||
| PJ Haggerty | 3.2 | 66% | +13 | 75–79 |
| Rylan Griffen | 3.1 | 66% | +13 | 75–79 |
| Jordan Pope | 2.8 | 65% | +12 | 75–79 |
| Mackenzie Mgbako | 2.3 | 62% | +9 | 76–79 |
Change is in TCU's win chance, in points. Scores read Texas A&M, then TCU. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Texas A&M 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 88-69vs Oklahoma StCovered −8.5 · Under 179.5
- Nov 9W 108-67vs UL MonroeCovered −36.5 · Over 169.5
- Nov 6W 104-67vs N KentuckyCovered −27.5 · Under 172.5
- Nov 3W 97-66vs Alabama St
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 99.2 and allowing 67.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 3–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Texas A&M | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 115.4 49th | 114.3 58th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.8 16th | 97.7 38th |
| Possessions a game | 73.7 5th | 71.2 133rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 53.1% 33rd | 49.3% 271st |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.1% 5th | 50.9% 212th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.8% 146th | 17.0% 60th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.3% 212th | 34.8% 26th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 74th | 0.32 9th |
The widest gap: Texas A&M's defense (16th) against TCU's offense (58th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Texas A&M 36, TCU 36
- First-half margin
- TCU by 0.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.5
- Projected second half
- Texas A&M 41, TCU 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Texas A&M, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 50.0 scored, 31.2 allowed
- TCU, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 49.0 scored, 32.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Texas A&M
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PJ HaggertyG | 27 | 17.8 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 20+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Jordan PopeG | 25 | 13.8 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 57% | |||||
| Rylan GriffenG | 23 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Jalen ShelleyF | 22 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 7+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Mackenzie MgbakoF | 22 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 38% | |||||
| Zach ClemenceF | 18 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Cade PhillipsF | 16 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 53% to play · 5+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 47% | |||||
| Josh IrvingF | 15 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
Missed the last game: Cade Phillips (18 min a game).
TCU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock HardingG | 33 | 11.4 | 3.1 | 6.4 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 54% · 7+ ast 44% | |||||
| Micah RobinsonG | 33 | 17.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 64% · 2+ ast 56% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Tanner ToolsonG | 28 | 10.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Gavin SykesG | 28 | 13.9 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 2+ ast 54% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| DJ ThomasF | 28 | 11.4 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Xavier EdmondsF | 27 | 13.5 | 7.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 2+ ast 51% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Trent LincolnG | 18 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Ryan HuntF | 13 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 55% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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